Is the government shutdown about to end? Polymarket 92% of bettors are betting on a Friday restart, bullish on XRP

Decentralized prediction market Polymarket’s latest polls show that 92% of participating bettors forecast the U.S. government shutdown will end by no later than November 15. This figure has surged over 50% from only 30% predicted on November 7, indicating a sharp rise in optimism. If Polymarket bettors’ predictions come true, this will mark the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Polymarket Prediction Accuracy Hits New High, 92% Consensus Rare

(Source: Polymarket)

According to a poll titled “When Will the Government Shutdown End?”, 92% of Polymarket bettors believe the shutdown will conclude by Friday at the latest. This represents a more than 50% increase overall, compared to only 30% of bettors on the morning of November 7 who predicted the political chaos would end within the same timeframe. The rapid rise in predictive consensus reflects growing market confidence that the shutdown will soon be resolved.

As a decentralized prediction market, Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of future events, with market prices reflecting collective participant forecasts. Unlike traditional polls, Polymarket participants bet real money, making their predictions more likely based on research and judgment rather than guesswork. Historical data shows that Polymarket’s predictions for U.S. presidential elections and major policy decisions often outperform traditional polling agencies.

A 92% consensus level is extremely high in Polymarket’s history. Typically, when the forecast consensus exceeds 80%, the actual probability of the event occurring aligns closely with the prediction. Such high consensus usually stems from clear signals and reliable information sources rather than mere emotional speculation. In this case, the 92% forecast is backed by tangible progress in Democratic minority party negotiations, providing a solid informational foundation for the market.

The sharp jump from 30% to 92% occurred within days, reflecting rapid political developments. On November 7, the Senate remained deadlocked, and the market lacked clear expectations for when the shutdown would end. However, intensive weekend negotiations and shifts by Democratic minority members significantly increased the likelihood of an agreement. Polymarket bettors keenly picked up on these signals and quickly adjusted their forecasts and bets.

Democratic Minority’s Breakthrough Agreement Framework Revealed

On Sunday, Democratic minority members helped push forward an agreement that would fund the U.S. government until January next year, in exchange for Republican agreement to vote on extending healthcare tax credits in mid-December. This framework marks a key breakthrough in breaking the deadlock, demonstrating bipartisan compromise on critical issues.

The core of the deal is a “time-for-policy” trade-off. Democrats agree to provide short-term funding (until January) to prevent the worsening of the shutdown’s economic and social impacts. In return, Republicans commit to voting on extending healthcare tax credits in mid-December, a key social policy concern for Democrats. Such compromises are common in U.S. politics, but reaching an agreement in such a short timeframe indicates both parties recognize the rising costs of continued confrontation.

The deal still requires formal approval from the House of Representatives and signature by President Trump. The House, controlled by Republicans, theoretically makes passage easier. However, hardline factions within the GOP may oppose the compromise. Trump’s stance will be decisive—if he publicly supports the deal, Republican lawmakers are likely to follow.

Not all Democrats are pleased with the agreement. On Sunday, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren posted on X (formerly Twitter) that voting for the bill would be a “mistake.” Warren said, “I will not support any deal that does nothing to lower healthcare costs. We are in a healthcare crisis. Extending these tax credits for just one year costs far less than Donald Trump’s $40 billion bailout to Argentina.”

Warren’s opposition reveals intra-party divisions. Progressives feel the deal makes too many concessions on healthcare, while moderates prioritize ending the shutdown. These internal disagreements could add uncertainty to the bill’s passage, but given the 92% Polymarket consensus, the market clearly believes opposition will not be enough to block it.

End of Government Shutdown Could Significantly Impact Crypto Markets

If the government reopens, U.S. lawmakers can begin crafting digital asset policies in a more crypto-friendly environment. This is the most significant potential impact of the shutdown ending on the crypto market. During the shutdown, the SEC was severely understaffed, halting all ETF approval processes, delaying listings of spot ETFs for XRP, Solana, and others.

Reopening means SEC staff will return to work, and backlog applications will be processed. Industry estimates suggest over 10 crypto ETFs are awaiting approval, covering assets like XRP, Solana, and Litecoin. Once the review resumes, these ETFs could list in December, injecting substantial institutional capital into the market.

Additionally, Trump’s administration’s pro-cryptocurrency stance—such as aiming to make the U.S. the “world crypto capital,” appointing crypto advocates as SEC chairs, and signing executive orders establishing a national Bitcoin reserve—creates a favorable policy environment. Ending the shutdown will enable these initiatives to advance, laying a regulatory foundation for long-term industry growth.

Four Major Benefits of the Shutdown Ending for Crypto Markets

Accelerated ETF Approvals: Post-reopening, SEC will process backlog, with multiple ETFs potentially listing in December

Policy Development Restarted: Crypto-friendly legislation (e.g., stablecoin regulation) will be pushed forward

Market Confidence Boosted: Political uncertainty diminishes, encouraging institutional crypto investments

Reduced Macro Risks: Economic recession fears caused by shutdown decline, risk appetite improves

Market reactions show Bitcoin and Ethereum modestly rose after Sunday’s agreement news, with XRP’s gains more pronounced (up 10% in the past 24 hours). This divergence indicates the market perceives the end of the shutdown as most beneficial for assets awaiting ETF approval, like XRP.

Polymarket Prediction Mechanisms and Market Sentiment Indicators

Polymarket’s success as a decentralized prediction market demonstrates high accuracy in political and policy forecasts, gaining mainstream recognition. The formation of the 92% consensus in this shutdown prediction is itself an interesting case study. Early on, market forecasts were highly divided on shutdown timing, spread across different windows. As negotiations progressed and information was revealed, forecasts converged toward a specific timeframe, ultimately creating overwhelming consensus.

This mechanism is closer to real probabilities than traditional polls because participants bear financial risk. Mistakes lead to real monetary losses, incentivizing more cautious and rational evaluation of information. For policymakers and investors, platforms like Polymarket are becoming valuable tools for assessing the likelihood of future events.

For crypto investors, monitoring related prediction markets—such as regulatory policies, ETF approvals, and legislative developments—can provide early signals ahead of news releases. Rapid increases in forecast consensus often indicate insider information or credible leaks circulating in the market, offering opportunities for early positioning.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management Tips

Given the high probability of the shutdown ending, how should investors adjust their strategies? First, focus on assets with pending ETF approvals. XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and others close to approval could surge once the government reopens. Consider building small positions near current prices, and upon SEC’s restart and approval timeline announcement, add to holdings.

Second, maintain core holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum, which offer stability and liquidity, serving as risk mitigators. A suggested allocation might be 50% in major coins, 30% in assets awaiting ETF approval, and 20% in cash to hedge against unexpected risks.

Regarding risks, despite the 92% consensus, a 12% chance of failure remains. If progressive lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren succeed in blocking the deal or Trump refuses to sign at the last minute, the shutdown could persist longer. In such scenarios, crypto markets might experience disappointment-driven sell-offs. Setting stop-loss orders at around -8% to -10% is advisable for risk control.