Recently, the crypto assets market has experienced a wave of recovery. However, XRP seems to have lost its direction in this "recovery tide," hovering between $2.70 and $3 for the past two weeks. While the market has high hopes for the potentially soon-to-be-approved exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that may invest in XRP, industry experts remain cautious about the market's direction. The Motley Fool points out that the current market adjustment may last longer than we think. A recent analysis pointed out that XRP's poor performance is partly due to the overall sluggishness of the crypto assets market. Traders are waiting for Bitcoin to regain its momentum as the leader. However, two key factors suggest that XRP may face a longer downward trend than expected. Since the beginning of the year, discussions about digital currency ETFs have been a hot topic in the industry. Several asset management companies have submitted applications to the Securities and Exchange Commission, hoping to launch an XRP ETF. It is estimated that these requests have a 94% to 95% chance of approval. Of course, the success rate of applications does not represent market demand. Although XRP ranks third globally and has attracted the attention of many institutional investors, the actual amount of capital inflow is another matter. According to the latest data, in the first eight months of 2025, institutional funds flowing into XRP amounted to only $1.25 billion. Despite mainstream market institutions predicting that new ETFs could attract $4 billion to $8 billion for XRP, the actual impact may be limited. After all, the market capitalization of XRP has reached $180 billion. While some analysts are confident in the prospects of XRP, believing its price could reach $4, $5, or even $10, these predictions do not fully account for the risks of short-term price declines. According to data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of XRP dropping to $2.50 this year is 32%, to $2.40 is 30%, and to $2 is 27%. This data indicates that XRP may continue to decline in the coming months, possibly not seeing a substantial recovery until 2026. In summary, The Motley Fool believes that whether XRP can emerge from its low point largely depends on the performance of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin fails to recover to its previous peak by the end of the year, the difficulty for XRP to initiate an upward trend will increase. Currently, the price of XRP has slightly risen to $3.0675, a 1.5% increase in the past 24 hours; however, this seems trivial compared to Ethereum's 5% increase during the same period. Please note that this article is for reference only, past performance does not guarantee future results.