Analysis of Dislocated Arbitrage Opportunities in the Pendle Protocol

In the Pendle DeFi protocol, Yield Token ( YT ) represents the "future yield rights" of a certain yield-bearing asset. Currently, the market pricing of csUSDL-YT is severely undervalued. By examining the potential value of the actuarial points airdrop, we find: although on the surface the YT yield is not as stable as PT, its essence of "points as capital" determines its ultra-high leverage potential and airdrop arbitrage value, making it one of the most cost-effective gaming opportunities in the current market.

What is YT?

YT is Yield Token ( income token ), which is one of the core mechanisms of Pendle. It allows for the trading of future income rights of a certain yield-bearing asset.

When the csUSDL( government bond stablecoin ) is tokenized into SY, it will be divided into two parts:

1. PT(Principal Token): Represents fixed income with lower risk;

2. YT(Yield Token): Represents future rights to yield, highly volatile, but often underestimated by the market.

The special thing about YT is that, in addition to profits, you can also gain a lot of airdrop points, but these profits are often overlooked by the market.

Current Arbitrage Opportunity: YT-csUSDL

Assuming an investment of $1,000, purchasing csUSDL YT maturing on July 31, 2025:

• Base APY ( csUSDL ): about 4%
• Market Implied APY: Approximately 10%
• Current YT price: about $0.0143
• Purchaseable units: approximately 70,130
• Pendle points multiplier: 1x
• Daily Points: 30

On the surface, it seems like buying at a high price with low returns, but the greatest value lies in the fact that the points' returns are overlooked by the market. The core question is: since a 10% return can be locked in, why accept a 4% return? The answer lies in: points are capital.

Why is this operation feasible?

Most users ignore YT due to the surface yield difference of 4% vs the underlying asset of 10%, but their misjudgment of its value stems from failing to price the capitalized points. The 6% implied yield gap reflects the market's systematic undervaluation of the point value. Holding YT generates 30 points daily, accumulating 115,715,017 points over 55 days. The key is how to accurately value this hidden capital.

Airdrop Value Assessment

Holding period: 55 days Total points earned: 70,130 × 30 × 55 = 115,715,017 points

Assume:

1. Current total points: 7.6 billion
2. Daily Growth: 300 million
3. Airdrop Time: 55 days later
4. Total airdrop points expected: 24.1 billion
5. Airdrop Ratio: 5%
6. Token listing valuation: $150 million

The estimated value of each point is approximately 0.0000311 US dollars.

Total Points Value = 115,715,017 × 0.0000311 = 3,601.09 USD

Add a basic return of 6 dollars

Total return of approximately $3,607.09

Achieved a 260.7% ROI in less than two months!

Conservative Estimate

Even if the valuation is halved to 75 million USD, it can still achieve an approximately 80% return rate. Considering the latest financing valuation is 150 million USD, the future market value may be even higher, so this valuation is reasonable and has reference value.

Leverage Strategy: 68x Points Yield Leverage

YT is a high leverage asset, requiring only 1.5% of csUSDL to purchase future returns, which means:

• Increased returns will be amplified by leverage.
• Obtain high multiplier points rewards
• Can sell at any time or set limit sell orders for flexible exit.

Current Market Advantages

Most users rush to buy PT to lock in stable returns, leading to a decrease in the implied yield of YT, making it cheaper. For users analyzing mispricing opportunities, the cheaper YT means higher potential returns. Moreover, YT can be sold at any time or placed for sale, and even if they exit early, they can retain the points earned.

Summary

Use csUSDL to bet on points airdrops, with controllable returns of up to 260% within less than 2 months. Supports withdrawal at any time, suitable for investors seeking high odds opportunities.

YT is not suitable for the "stable yield farmer" who only wants to obtain a 6% return, but rather a tool for capital allocators willing to take reasonable risks and pursue asymmetric opportunities. Investors who understand the Pendle mechanism and have confidence in the points project can see it as one of the most direct arbitrage opportunities in the current DeFi market.

Please remember: conduct independent research, perform risk simulations, and allocate your positions reasonably. Once the market discovers this operation, the YT price will no longer be inexpensive.