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Bitcoin Short-term (1-2 weeks) Trading Strategy Guide

1. Core Technology Position Reference

1. Support Levels (Sorted by Priority)

- First support: $100,000 (psychological level + recent fluctuation range lower edge)
- Second Support: 98,500 USD (recent low point, breaking below may trigger further selling)
- Strong support: $95,000 (previous resistance level, if breached, be cautious of deep adjustment risks)

2. Resistance Levels (sorted by priority)

- First resistance: $103,500 (previous high + upper edge of short-term fluctuation range)
- Second resistance: $105,800 (50-day moving average position, currently turned into strong resistance)
- Strong resistance: 108,000 USD (the lower edge of the previous consolidation platform, breaking through may open up rebound space)

2. Long and Short Operation Suggestions

1. Bullish Strategy (Low Risk Entry)

- Entry timing: Price stabilizes in the range of $98,500-$100,000 (signals such as bullish engulfing, RSI oversold rebound, etc.).
- Position control: Enter with a light position (10%-15% of total funds) to avoid heavy speculation at the bottom.
- Take Profit Settings:
- First take profit: 103,500 USD (first resistance level, can reduce position by 50%);
- Second take profit: $105,800 (50-day moving average position, remaining position can exit completely).
- Stop-loss settings: If it falls below $98,500 and does not recover within 30 minutes, immediately stop-loss and exit to avoid deep losses.

2. Short Selling Strategy (Short-term Speculation)

- Entry Timing: Price rebounds to the resistance range of 103,500-105,800 (signals such as bearish candles and MACD divergence appear).
- Position Control: Try ultra-light positions (5%-10% of total funds), and strictly control risk during short-term volatility.
- Take Profit Settings:
- First take profit: 100,000 USD (psychological barrier, can reduce position by 50%);
- Second take profit: $98,500 (recent low point, exit remaining position).
- Stop Loss Setting: Break through $105,800 and stabilize, immediately stop loss to prevent trend reversal.

3. Wait-and-see strategy (conservative choice)

- If the price fluctuates in a narrow range between 98,500 and 103,500 USD without a clear breakout signal, it is recommended to maintain a flat position and wait for a clearer direction before entering the market.

3. Key Points of Risk Control

1. Leverage Control: With high volatility in the short-term market, it is recommended to use low leverage within 5x for contract trading to avoid liquidation caused by high leverage above 10x.
2. Fund Management: The risk of a single trade should not exceed 2% of the total capital, set a fixed stop-loss point, strictly execute discipline, and do not blindly hold positions.
3. Emotional Management: The current Fear and Greed Index is at 34 (Fear Zone), avoid being influenced by the market's panic sentiment, do not chase highs or sell lows, and adhere to a dual assessment of technical and fundamental analysis.
4. Be cautious of news: Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown, the flow of institutional funds, and other macro news. Sudden policies or large capital movements may trigger extreme price fluctuations.

4. Market Signal Tracking

1. If the price breaks through 105,800 USD (50-day moving average) with increased volume and closes above for three consecutive hours, it may indicate the end of a short-term adjustment, and one may consider moderately increasing long positions.
2. If it breaks below the support level of 98,500 USD, and the trading volume increases, it may further drop to 95,000 USD or even lower, and immediate stop-loss and observation are required.
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