QCP: The Fed's potential interest rate cut expectations and corporate earnings resilience are expected to support risk assets and Bitcoin before the end of the year.

On November 12, QCP released its daily market observation stating: Bitcoin's trend is consistent with the overall news-driven risk sentiment—after a fall during the U.S. trading session, it stabilized around $103,000 during the Asian session. Although the U.S. government's “shutdown” continues, there is now a clearer pathway for resolution. The pullback in yesterday's ADP data has reactivated the narrative of a “weakening labor market,” which is particularly concerning ahead of the December FOMC meeting (December 9-10), and awkwardly, the release time for the official BLS data remains uncertain. The Senate has approved a “temporary funding bill” extending government funding until January 30 of next year, providing a short-term fix for fiscal issues. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Representatives, and if passed, it will be sent to the White House for signature. While this move can avoid an administrative interruption during the holiday period, it also sows the seeds for another deadlock early next year. This is a typical “kick the can down the road” policy: it temporarily eliminates tail risks but fails to address the structural issues. The market will remain highly sensitive to procedural obstacles or delays in the House vote. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 96% probability that the government shutdown will end between November 12 and 15. The uncertainty of the government shutdown, tariff friction, fluctuations in the credit market, and softening economic data mean that the fourth quarter may still see phase turbulence. However, the Fed's potential interest rate cut expectations and the resilience of corporate earnings are expected to support risk assets and Bitcoin before the end of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, the combination of monetary and fiscal policies remains friendly, providing sustained tailwinds for economic growth.