1. Market Overview

The current closing price of ETH in the market is $2996.6 (data sourced from the latest daily K-line close), and the overall trend is in a phase of volatility convergence repair. From the daily K-line data over the past 14 days, the ETH price has retraced from a high of $3906.58, with the recent closing price stabilizing around $3000, showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and a clear trend of shrinking volatility. In recent days, trading volume has also significantly shrunk, with the latest trading volume at 1271.85 (the unit has plummeted compared to previous days, with the previous day's volume reaching 188628), reflecting a cautious market sentiment, lack of liquidity, and a strong atmosphere of fund watching. At the same time, from the perspective of actual market fluctuations, the highest price in the daily line was $3223.38, and the lowest price was $2623.57, with the price range gradually narrowing. Combining analysts' opinions and news sentiment, the mainstream market sentiment has shifted to wait-and-see and defensive. Bullish support has not collapsed, but the short-term pressure is evident.

2. Technical Analysis
Based on the 14-day daily K-line and 48-hour hourly K-line data, the current technical situation of ETH is in a downtrend range of consolidation and fluctuation. The key support area is concentrated at $2980-$2960, with the historical low of $2987.95 becoming a short-term focus; the upper resistance area is $3035-$3055, with the historical intraday high of $3052.64 being touched multiple times without success, indicating that the main force is repeatedly selling off near this level. In the short term within 48 hours, ETH quickly retraced after reaching a high of $3055, with prices fluctuating around the integer level of $3000 multiple times. Each time the price falls below the $2985-$2990 range, there is an immediate rebound, but the overall highs continue to decline. In terms of trading volume, in the past 48 hours, it has sharply decreased from a high of 22896.8 to 1271.85, indicating insufficient market buying momentum and a lack of motivation for short-term bullish trading.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
The latest news shows that 40,000 ETH from dormant wallets have been activated, involving a value of over $120 million. Such large-scale movements are usually seen by the market as potential selling pressure signals. In response, the hourly K-line experienced a slight drop after the news broke, with no clear upward movement, proving that funds remain cautious in the game against negative news. Other news includes the OKX exchange reporting tight Ethereum liquidity, with users' holdings declining; some major institutions, such as European asset management giants, have entered the market, which, while providing structural support, has not yet been significantly reflected in the K-line price performance in the short term. There have been no new policies issued recently, and relevant statistics show no new policy developments in the past month.

4. Analyst's Opinion
Integrating the original views of analysts: "ETH direction: bearish, entry: $3035-$3055, stop loss: $3075, take profit: $3000-$2980-$2960, entry is flexible, no need to hit the exact point. Light positions for aggressive trades, weekend liquidity is poor, consider entering near the second take profit level." The actual market situation is basically in line with this view. The market is currently oscillating below the resistance area of $3035-$3055, with the current closing price of $2996.6 highly overlapping with analysts' take profit levels. Analysts suggest prioritizing short positions and indicate poor liquidity, light positions for entry, and profit-taking strategies.

5. Future Trend Outlook and Trading Suggestions
Combining the recent K-line performance, the shrinking trading volume, and the impact of external whale movements, it is expected that ETH's short-term trend will still be weak and consolidating. If it breaks below the $2980-$2960 support level, one should be wary of accelerated downside risks. If it can quickly recover above $3035, it may retest the $3050 high. For trading suggestions, conservative traders may wait to buy low after a pullback to the $2960 range, with a tight stop loss set below the support breakout. Aggressive traders, following analysts' suggestions, may lightly short around $3035, targeting the $2980-$2960 range, and take profit or stop loss promptly during sudden volume spikes or significant bullish daily K-lines.

6. Risk Warning
The current market volatility is narrowing, liquidity has sharply dropped, and trading volume has hit a new low for the cycle. If a sudden negative large order sell-off occurs, ETH may quickly breach key support. The activation of 40,000 ETH dormant wallets brings potential pressure to the market, and the bulls' defense has repeatedly tested $3000 without success, necessitating caution against a second bottoming out. Therefore, it is advised to strictly set stop losses, control positions reasonably, and closely monitor market fund flows and key information changes. In summary, the ETH market is currently in a critical tug-of-war zone between bulls and bears, with short-term weak oscillations, testing the $2980-$2960 support below, and paying attention to the $3035-$3055 resistance above. It is recommended to operate flexibly and control risks strictly.