2025-12-25 14:25:07

A major event is happening tomorrow—$23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are about to expire, making it the largest in BTC history. Interestingly, what chain reactions might this trigger?

Market makers will need to unwind their hedging positions, which will directly impact the support and resistance levels originally maintained by the options structure. In the short term, BTC volatility could be amplified, and the market may enter what is called a "funding structure vacuum period." But this doesn't necessarily mean a crash is imminent. On the contrary, if the price finds support in the $80,000-$82,000 range, it could actually present a buying opportunity.

Looking at the technical side, a "bullish divergence" signal has appeared on smaller timeframes, which is a noteworthy detail. This signal indicates that although BTC's price is moving downward, the actual capital outflow isn't happening as quickly, suggesting the market is correcting from excessive pessimism.

Historically, during periods from 2024 to 2025 and from 2021 to 2022, similar divergence signals have appeared four times, each followed by a rebound in BTC—some rebounds were large, and some even changed the overall trend. Will this time be different? The probability exists, but currently, market sentiment is still in recovery and overall bearish, so the chance of a short-term rebound is relatively higher.

BTC0.2%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AlwaysQuestioning

· 6h ago

23.6 billion? Wow, with this scale, I need to keep a close eye on it tomorrow. Wait, is the bullish divergence coming again? Is this a repeat of history? Is it a dump to unload positions or a buying opportunity? It all depends on whether the 8K level can hold. Capital outflows aren't that fast? Then there's hope. How likely is this rebound? Is it real or just a false alarm?

View OriginalReply0

MerkleDreamer

· 6h ago

23.6 billion, wow, such a scale... Looks like we're in for a show tomorrow. Wait, this divergence signal is right here, history has never missed a move. If the key level at 80,000 can really hold, then it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Capital is still here, it's just market makers moving things around, what's there to panic about? By the way, the last four divergences all rebounded, but this time it feels a bit different.

View OriginalReply0

MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 6h ago

23.6 billion options liquidated? I've been through that, and 2018 was even worse. Wait, is this divergence signal reliable? Is the probability of history repeating really that high? The capital vacuum period is just pretending to be mysterious, honestly just waiting to dump. 80,000 support level? Ha, I bet five bucks tomorrow they'll come up with another story. Market maker unloading positions = retail investors taking the hit, this trick has been played out. Bullish divergence? How come I only see a bullish trap, they're about to cut the leeks again. Short-term rebound might be high? Don't be fooled, just listen, don't follow the trend blindly. This time will probably be the same old story, good data telling a story, but in the end, the project team will run away.

View OriginalReply0

ContractFreelancer

· 6h ago

$23.6 billion options liquidation, is this really going to bleed out this time? --- Market makers unloading positions every time they say support is collapsing, and then what? --- Bullish divergence is back again, history loves to repeat itself, and this time I have to place a bet. --- Buying the dip at $80,000? Wake up, it's not that simple. --- The so-called "funds vacuum period" is just an excuse to dump, right? --- Four times divergence signals led to rebounds, so why is this one so uncertain? --- High probability of a short-term rebound? I just want to know what the odds are. --- Full moon night, see the ghosts. This options expiration might really bleed out. --- Volatility is amplifying, the contract holders' feast is coming, are you ready to be harvested? --- Technical analysis is technical, sentiment is sentiment, who will win is really hard to say.

View OriginalReply0

MetaMaximalist

· 6h ago

honestly the historical precedent on these 4 bullish divergences is what gets me—but everyone's obsessing over the 236B expiry like it's some binary event. the real signal isn't the price action, it's *where* capital actually flows when makers unwind. 80-82k support holds? that's not a bounce, that's validation of the network's fundamental adoption curve. people sleep on that distinction.

Reply0