Feitian Moutai price increase on the first day: iMoutai still sells out instantly! Leading liquor companies' valuation center is expected to move upward

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Feitian Maotai raises prices to boost the market; the stock price surges higher. At the start of trading, the Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) moves up.

In an announcement late on March 30, starting March 31 the sales contract price for Feitian Maotai will be raised by 8.6% to 1,269 yuan per bottle, while its self-operated retail price will be raised by 2.7% to 1,539 yuan per bottle. The last time Maotai adjusted prices was on November 1, 2023. At that time, it raised the ex-factory prices of Moutai liquor (Feitian and Wuxing) by 53% vol, with an average increase of about 20%, from 969 yuan per bottle to 1,169 yuan per bottle.

On March 31, the first “stock-rush day” following Maotai’s price increase, its self-operated retail channel “iMaotai” released a batch of inventory to the outside every 5 minutes. Each release was snapped up in less than 1 minute, and the price-hike move did not in the slightest affect consumers’ enthusiasm.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that price increases by the leading players will thicken earnings and strengthen the credibility of delivery, and expects that stable market pricing will be beneficial for the direct-operated channels. Improving the marketization level will help lift the valuation center. At the bottom of the industry cycle, it has stabilized and leading companies’ recovery is ahead of pace.

The Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), tracking the CSI Subsector Food Index, currently trades at a valuation of 19x. It sits around the 2.71% percentile over the past decade, suggesting that pessimistic expectations may already be fully reflected. Compared with a pure-liquor ETF, the Huaxia Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) places more emphasis on leading baijiu makers in first- and second-tier cities. Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu and others together account for more than 60%, while Kweichow Moutai holdings make up over 18%. Leading liquor companies have strong brand power, have low sensitivity to terminal pricing, and the broader public has a high acceptance of price increases.

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