Americans Are Warming Up to Robotaxis -- and That's Big News for Alphabet and Tesla

Would you feel anxious if a car with no driver showed up to take you to your destination? If so, you’re not alone. A recent survey conducted by legal firm Murphy & Prachthauser found that 7 in 10 Americans would be at least somewhat apprehensive about riding in an autonomous rideshare vehicle.

However, the numbers look much better with people who have actually ridden in a self-driving vehicle. Although 85% said they were nervous initially, 64% felt comfortable during their most recent experience.

The bottom line of this survey is that Americans appear to be warming up to robotaxis. And that’s big news for two of the biggest self-driving car stocks – Alphabet (GOOG +5.02%) (GOOGL +5.10%) and Tesla (TSLA +4.64%).

Image source: Getty Images.

Alphabet’s Waymo: The autonomous ride-hailing juggernaut

Alphabet’s Waymo unit describes its technology as “the world’s most experienced driver.” The claim is based on the fact that the company’s autonomous vehicles have logged over 20 million rides so far. This impressive number reflects Waymo’s status as the world’s first autonomous ride-hailing service.

Waymo’s management probably isn’t surprised by the results of the Murphy & Prachthauser survey, which show that Americans are more receptive to robotaxis than they’ve been in the past. Waymo boasts a 93% customer satisfaction rate.

The unit’s safety record is even more impressive. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles have 92% fewer serious injuries or worse crashes and 92% fewer pedestrian crashes with injuries than average human drivers over the same distance in the cities where the company operates. Insurance giant Swiss Re determined that Waymo is a significantly safer alternative than human drivers.

A recent funding round valued Waymo at $126 billion. That’s only a fraction of Alphabet’s market cap, which is roughly $3.5 trillion. However, the potential upside for Waymo is massive.

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Tesla: Ready to scale

Tesla has targeted the robotaxi market for years, but has so far lagged behind Waymo. That could be about to change. The company now offers autonomous ride-hailing services in Austin, Texas, and plans to expand into more cities.

Lars Moravy, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla, expressed his view in the quarterly conference call in January that Tesla is “the only company capable of scaling at the rate that is needed for the tsunami of autonomy that has come.” Whether or not he’s right, it’s fair to say that Tesla’s biggest advantage in the robotaxi market is its potential to scale.

Millions of Tesla vehicles equipped with its FSD (full self-driving) technology are already on the road. In theory, any of these cars could be used for autonomous ride-hailing. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in his company’s quarterly conference call in January.

There will also be an opportunity, something we have talked about for a long time, for existing owners of Teslas to add or subtract their cars to the fleet, kind of like how Airbnb (ABNB +2.53%) works, where you can add or subtract your house to the Airbnb inventory.

However, there’s one factor that could be a two-edged sword for Tesla in its quest to dominate the robotaxi market. The company’s technology relies solely on computer vision, whereas Waymo uses LiDAR sensors. A vision-only AI approach significantly lowers Tesla’s costs. But the trade-off could be lower safety levels.

A new frontier

In the early days of the automobile, an expression became popular: “Get a horse!” The phrase underscored Americans’ skepticism about the first cars. With nearly 300 million cars registered in the U.S. today, that view has obviously gone by the wayside.

We could be at a new frontier now with autonomous ride-hailing services. Look for Americans to become increasingly more comfortable with the technology. While the robotaxi era is in its infancy, it’s here already.

Alphabet isn’t just a search engine stock or cloud stock. Tesla is no longer just an electric car stock. They’re poised to be the biggest winners in a new market that could make forward-thinking investors a boatload of money over time.