#Tether USDT稳定币争议 Looking back at the development of stablecoins over the past few years, it’s clear that the market is always searching for new opportunities. When USDT was initially controversial, a wave of new stablecoin projects emerged. Today, we are witnessing the rise of new platforms like Plasma, which attract大量资金 through high-yield mining incentives. This naturally reminds me of the DeFi summer in 2020.
At that time, various new projects rushed to launch liquidity mining, with APYs soaring into thousands. While it did attract many investors in the short term, the bubble ultimately bu

#美联储利率政策 Reviewing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies over the past decade, it is not difficult to see their close connection to the economic cycle. After the 2008 financial crisis, nearly ten years of low interest rate environments fueled multiple bull markets, but also sowed the seeds for inflation. The rapid rate hike cycle beginning in 2022 effectively curbed inflation but also put significant pressure on the economy. Now, Societe Generale predicts that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year, which reminds me of the situation after the dot-com bubble b

From the long river of history, the water level of the prediction market is continuously rising. Recalling the scene when Bitcoin first appeared, who could have imagined that the cryptocurrency field would flourish to this extent today? Seeing the news that Kalshi and Polymarket had nearly $10 billion in trading volume in November, I can't help but feel emotional.
This number not only sets a new record but also reflects that the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a new wave of enthusiasm. Kalshi's $5.8 billion monthly trading volume grew by 32% month-over-month; Polymarket's $3.74 billion i

#预测市场平台发展 Reflecting on the development of prediction market platforms over the years, I can't help but feel emotional about the challenges faced by emerging platforms like Kalshi. Years ago, platforms such as Intrade also encountered similar regulatory hurdles and ultimately had to exit the US market. Now, Kalshi is facing a class-action lawsuit, accused of operating unlicensed sports betting, as if history is repeating itself.
The boundary between prediction markets and traditional gambling has always been blurry. Although Kalshi claims to fall under derivatives trading, there is a clear mi

#稳定币监管 Seeing the central bank's first definition of stablecoins, I can't help but recall the evolution of stablecoin regulation over the years. From being ignored at first, to rapid growth, and now to strict regulation, each step reflects the industry's growth. I remember in 2019 when the Libra project was first proposed, regulatory agencies around the world were still exploring responses. Now, the central bank clearly classifies stablecoins as virtual currencies and emphasizes the risks associated with them, showing that regulatory thinking has become increasingly clear. However, Hong Kong'

Looking back on these years in the crypto market, it has truly been a rollercoaster with ups and downs and ever-changing winds. Today, seeing Bitcoin plunge again with over 200,000 liquidation events, it naturally brings to mind the past several major dips. Each significant decline feels like a baptism, testing investors' psychological resilience.
From a technical perspective, after Bitcoin broke below the 90,000 level, the support zone between 85,000 and 86,800 has become particularly important. If it cannot stabilize, it may continue to decline toward the 82,000-80,000 range. Historically, t

#比特币市场分析 Once again, someone is predicting the price of Bitcoin. This time it's Arthur Hayes from BitMEX, who insists on a bullish target of $250,000. Looking back over the past decade, such bold predictions are not uncommon. At the end of 2013, when Bitcoin first broke through $1,000, many were shouting out a target of $10,000. At the time, it seemed like a pipe dream, but four years later, it was indeed realized.
However, history always repeats itself in a spiral of rising and falling. The sharp decline after the 2017 bull market, the resurgence in 2021, and the subsequent crash all teach u

#稳定币市场发展 Reflecting on the development history of the stablecoin market, I can't help but feel deeply emotional. From the earliest USDT to later USDC, DAI, and others, every step has been fraught with difficulties. Now seeing traditional financial giants like US banks beginning to test issuing customized stablecoins on the Stellar network, I am filled with a sense of admiration.
This reminds me of Facebook's Libra project launched in 2019, which caused quite a stir at the time. But it ultimately failed due to regulatory issues and other challenges, becoming a cautionary tale. In contrast, the

Looking back, the price trend of Bitcoin has always been full of ups and downs. Recently, I came across an analysis stating that when on-chain traders experience a loss of 37%, Bitcoin often bottoms out and rebounds. This reminded me of the 2018 bear market, when losses exceeded 50% at one point, and the market was filled with despair. But it was precisely in such dire circumstances that the seeds of a new bull market quietly began to sprout.
Today, on-chain losses are only at 20%, still a distance from the 37% critical point. This may indicate that the market still needs further adjustment. B

#Layer-1网络发展 Reflecting on the development history of Layer-1 networks, I can't help but feel a surge of emotions. From Bitcoin pioneering the way, to Ethereum bringing smart contracts, and to the emergence of various new public chains in recent years, every step has pushed this industry forward.
Recently, I saw news that BitMine has significantly increased its ETH holdings, which reminded me of the peak when Ethereum rose in 2017. At that time, many questioned whether it could surpass Bitcoin, but with its flexible smart contract capabilities, Ethereum eventually became the main battleground

#加密货币市场波动 Reflecting on the past, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market always evokes many emotions. The recent sharp decline in the market reminds me of the multiple bull and bear cycles I have experienced before. The main reasons for this drop seem to be the liquidation event on October 11th and the worsening macroeconomic environment.
From historical experience, liquidations caused by excessive leverage and poor risk management often trigger chain reactions in the market. I recall the crash at the end of 2018, which was also triggered by similar reasons. At that time, many investors

#加密货币市场整体分析 Looking back, I have witnessed countless rises and falls in the cryptocurrency world. Today's market conditions inevitably remind me of projects that once shined brilliantly.
On-chain activity for BTC shows characteristics typical of the end of a cycle, a phenomenon not uncommon in history. Large holders are slowing their accumulation, while small retail wallets are accelerating their buying. This divergence often signals an impending market turning point.
Recalling the peak of the 2017 bull market, similar on-chain behavior patterns also appeared. Subsequently, the market experie

#比特币价格走势分析 Looking back on the Bitcoin market over the years, it's truly been unpredictable. The data from November shows trading volume hitting a 5-month low, reminding me of the 2018 bear market. At that time, trading volume also shrank sharply, and the market was very bleak. However, the current situation is somewhat different; although exchange trading volume has declined significantly, Bitcoin prices remain above $80,000. This indicates that the market structure has changed, with institutional investors' influence growing increasingly.
Interestingly, there has been a large-scale outflow

#美联储货币政策变化 Looking back on past monetary policy cycles, every shift by the Federal Reserve has shaken the nerves of global markets. Now, with an 87.4% probability of a rate cut in December, one can't help but recall the easing cycle after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the market also anticipated rate cuts, but the actual process was far more complex than expected. History shows us that policy shifts are often gradual and do not happen overnight.
The current situation shares both similarities and differences with the past. Inflationary pressures remain, but signs of slowing economic

#比特币价格波动分析 Reflecting on over ten years of Bitcoin history, such "short-term bottoming" theories have been heard too many times. Every major dip is followed by analysts confidently predicting that the bottom has been reached and a rebound is imminent. But history shows us that the actual bottom is often lower than expected, and rebounds can take longer than anticipated.
Currently, seeing the RSI approaching 30 is indeed a technical support level. However, during the 2018 bear market, we witnessed RSI lingering below 20 for extended periods. So, relying solely on this indicator to determine a

#Tether储备结构争议 Regarding the recent controversy over the USDT reserve structure, it reminds me of similar debates during past bull and bear cycles. Whenever market sentiment is high, people tend to ignore risks; during bear markets, various FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) issues emerge one after another. The recent doubts raised by Arthur Hayes and S&P about Tether's reserves have indeed sparked some concerns. However, after careful analysis, I believe the likelihood of such extreme scenarios occurring is quite low. First, the probability of gold and Bitcoin simultaneously dropping by 30% is ve

#代币经济模型变化 Looking back at the development history of blockchain projects, the evolution of token economic models is indeed quite revealing. Hayes's suggestion to Monad reminds me of those ambitious "Ethereum killers" in the early days. At that time, many projects adopted high FDV and low circulating token models, which could attract attention in the short term but were often unsustainable in the long run.
Now it seems that such models essentially transfer the risk to retail investors. I have personally witnessed many projects experiencing fierce sell-offs after insiders' tokens are unlocked,

#Tether储备资产风险 Reflecting on the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market over these years, it’s hard not to notice that USDT’s reserve structure has once again become a focal point. Seeing Tether increase its holdings in Bitcoin and gold clearly indicates a bet on the arrival of an interest rate cut cycle. While this approach could potentially bring substantial returns, it also significantly increases risk. It’s important to remember that the collapse of Terra/LUNA back then served as a wake-up call — the importance of a stablecoin’s reserve structure should not be underestimated.
Now, S&P h

#比特币价格分析 Looking back at Bitcoin's trend, this round of market movement is truly astonishing. From historical experience, the combination of current market sentiment and technical indicators often signals the formation of a phase-specific bottom. RSI approaching 30, major players starting to build long positions—these are typical signals of a bottom in past cycles.
However, we also need to be cautious; a short-term rebound does not mean a long-term trend reversal. Reflecting on late 2018 and March 2020, similar situations occurred then as well, but the true bull market had to wait a while. Th