IEA lowers oil demand forecast due to US tariffs dragging down economic rise

On April 15, the IEA monthly report showed that oil demand growth is expected to be lower than previously expected due to the escalation of global trade tensions triggered by US President Trump’s tariffs, which has put pressure on the global economy. “There is considerable uncertainty about our forecasts for this year and next year with tough trade negotiations expected during the next 90 days (and beyond) of the tariff moratorium, a bumpy ride in the oil market,” the IEA said. "The IEA revised the economic growth assumptions underpinning its oil demand forecasts, lowering its global GDP forecast for 2025 and 2026 to around 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, from 3.1% previously. As a result, global oil demand is expected to be revised to 726,000 b/d this year from 1.03 million b/d previously, averaging 103.5 million b/d. Growth is expected to slow further next year to 692,000 b/d.