1. Is this the bottom? First, let's consider 3 key signals.

*The customs policy has not ended yet.
Customs policy will continue to affect global supply chains.
The collapse caused by the tariff policy ( a direct incentive factor ) + the stringent policy of the Federal Reserve ( the main contradiction ) + economic recession ( the deep logic ) of triple pressure.
Technical support BTC
Key support level: 75 thousand (psychological barrier)
Danger zone: 70 thousand
Boundary position: 6.8~6.5 thousand
If it falls below 70 thousand, it could trigger a chain reaction of leveraged liquidation, with another 5-10% space below.
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The influence of the "political market" on the cryptocurrency world
The market is concerned about the acceleration of the economic decoupling between the US and China, and the rising costs of global supply chains.
The logic of influence on Bitcoin
Restoration of inflation expectations:
Tariffs increase prices on imported goods → Data on US CPI may rise → The US Federal Reserve delays the reduction of interest rates and even resumes rate hikes.
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Continuation of the sale of risky assets:
High tariffs hit expectations of corporate profitability → Capital is leaving high-risk assets (cryptocurrencies, shares of technology companies).
Strengthening of the US dollar:
The tariff policy temporarily stimulates demand for protection in dollars → Bitcoin as a "non-sovereign asset" is being sold.
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Secondly, the assessment of the falling space ( several possible scenarios )
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pessimistic scenario
Expansion of customs + The Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate unchanged + hawkish policy
reduction to 70,000 – 65,000
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neutral scene
Tariff stagnation + further soft statements from the Federal Reserve System
Return in the range of 80,000 - 85,000 with fluctuations
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Optimistic scenario
Resolution of the trade war between China and the USA + expectations of a decrease in interest rates
He rose above 90,000
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The latest important levels to watch:
①7.5 thousand may ( false breakout on the rebound ), repeated 'support forming a bottom
Formation of a short-term bottom, rebound to 80 thousand
If the 70000 level ( is breached, retail investors will massively exit the market ).
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Third. The strategy of phased position opening ( is suitable only for those who can withstand the fluctuations ).
Regarding spot trading:
1. Capital Management > Buy Signal at the Bottom
Buying Bitcoin in installments and some crash-resistant major altcoins
But always maintain a 50% position state.
Operations that can respond to extreme market situations at any time
In the short term, it is difficult to achieve a sharp increase; playing everything by guessing the bottom is not a wise decision.
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2. Reference for batch tempo
possible double bottom
75,000-73,000 Divide into 2 batches for purchase
The probability of a rebound from technical overselling is increasing.
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70,000-68,000 Increase to a total position of 50%
Hedging policy + clearing panic reserves
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Only by surviving do you have the right to the bottom.
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Response strategies in the context of contracts:
7.5 thousand is suitable only for very small positions for experiments, do not exceed 10%.
For medium-term contract operations, be sure to use stop-loss.
A short-term bottom is defined by testing, not guessing.
Constantly reducing positions through floating profit, using retracement picking methods.
Seizing profitable opportunities and chances in instability
If the market is consistently below 80 thousand
One can continue to find opportunities for sales.
Take large short positions to continue the downturn.
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Long-term opportunities in the cryptocurrency world:
If the trade war accelerates the process of dollar devaluation, Bitcoin will still have the potential for further growth.
Other ethereums and altcoins, if there is a bounce on the daily chart, this is a constant selling opportunity.
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Many coins are currently in a bear market.
The law of survival Article One
——Hold your position, don't spend all the bullets at once!