DOGE ETF Prospect Analysis

The year 2025 is seen as a key turning point for crypto ETFs. With the inauguration of the Trump administration and the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, there has been a significant shift in regulatory attitudes towards a more crypto-friendly stance. The nomination of Paul Atkins, the new chairman of the SEC, further reinforces market expectations for the approval of the Dogecoin ETF. Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg ETF, noted that the clarity of the regulatory framework will accelerate ETF approvals for non-mainstream assets such as DOGE. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of a DOGE ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has jumped to 74% from 27% at the beginning of the year.

In addition, the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024 (with cumulative inflows exceeding $40 billion) has paved the way for other cryptocurrency ETFs. Institutions like Bitwise have submitted applications for a Dogecoin ETF, while the joint proposal from REX Advisers and Osprey Funds incorporates DOGE into a multi-asset ETF portfolio, demonstrating institutional recognition of its potential.

Market Reaction and Price Potential

If the DOGE ETF is approved, its price could usher in a historic breakthrough. According to JPMorgan’s analysis, if DOGE attracts 10% of the Bitcoin ETF’s inflows (about $4 billion), it will increase its market capitalization by $460.2 billion based on Bank of America’s valuation multiplier, pushing the price to $2.2 (9.4 times the current price of $0.236). More optimistic analysts, such as Ali Martinez, believe that technicals suggest that DOGE could break through $5, but that would require a market capitalization of $700 billion.

In the short term, market sentiment has already reacted in advance: in November 2024, the price of DOGE surged by 150% in a single month due to ETF rumors, and whale addresses cumulatively increased their holdings by 1.1 billion DOGE (worth 445 million dollars). Long-term forecasts, however, show significant divergence, with CoinMarketCap predicting a DOGE price range of 0.18 - 0.20 dollars in 2025, while CoinJournal is bullish at 1.18 dollars.

Unique Advantages and Challenges of DOGE

Advantages:

• Community and Cultural Influence: DOGE has an active community composed of millions of X and Reddit users, and its “entertainment attributes” have a natural viral potential in the social media era.
• Institutional Opportunity: ETFs will attract conservative investors, reduce volatility, and drive DOGE from a “meme coin” to a legitimate financial instrument.

Challenge:

• Regulatory Uncertainty: Although the SEC’s stance has softened, DOGE lacks the “safe-haven asset” narrative of Bitcoin and may still face disputes regarding its “securities characteristics.”
• Market liquidity risk: Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that DOGE needs to establish a more decentralized holding structure to avoid manipulation suspicion, as the current top 10 addresses control 44% of the circulating supply.
• Lack of value support: DOGE has no supply limit, with an annual inflation rate of about 3.8%, and slow technological upgrades, lacking practical use cases compared to public chains like Solana.

Future Prospects of DOGE ETF

The ETF track in 2025 will not be limited to DOGE. Solana and XRP are more favored by institutions due to their technological advantages and legal progress, with Polymarket predicting an 80% chance of SOL ETF approval. However, DOGE still holds unique appeal with its high market value (the 8th largest cryptocurrency) and endorsements from celebrities like Elon Musk. If its ETF is launched first, it may give rise to a new narrative of “Meme coin institutionalization,” opening possibilities for similar assets like SHIB.

The approval of the DOGE ETF will be a landmark event for the convergence of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance. In the short term, regulatory dividends and inflows could push prices higher to $0.4 - $3.44; In the long term, it is necessary to solve the problem of value base. Investors need to be wary of excessive market speculation and pay attention to the SEC’s policy developments and the progress of the DOGE ecosystem. As analyst Eric Balchunas puts it, “Today’s memes could be tomorrow’s ETFs,” but DOGE still needs to go beyond the “entertainment” label and build real-world use cases if it is to gain a foothold.

Author: Icing, Gate.io researcher *This article only represents the author’s views and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment involves risks, and users should make cautious decisions. *The content of this article is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. If you need to reprint, please indicate the author and source; otherwise, legal responsibility will be pursued.