#六月利率预测 The latest statement from Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee indicates that the Federal Reserve (FED) may initiate interest rate cuts within the next 10 to 16 months, but emphasizes the need to be cautious of the supply chain risks brought about by the Trump administration's tariff policies. This suggests that a turning point in interest rates may be expected in the latter half of next year; however, decision-makers remain highly vigilant about overheating in the economy and recurring inflation.

Trump recently proposed a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to a collective plunge in the US and European stock markets. Goolsbee bluntly stated that high tariffs could trigger a "stagflation" dilemma—where economic stagnation coexists with inflation, which is the scenario that central banks are most reluctant to see. Despite the president's repeated pressure to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has consistently upheld policy independence, emphasizing that the law prohibits the Federal Reserve from holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
The total market value of cryptocurrencies is currently fluctuating at $3.47 trillion, with the market being exceptionally sensitive to interest rate policies. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates in December 2024 previously triggered a single-day drop of 5% in Bitcoin, while during stable policy periods, funds tend to flow into low-risk assets such as government bonds. If interest rate cuts are implemented next year, it could repeat the scenario of capital flowing into the crypto market; however, if a tariff war escalates and leads to a postponement of the rate cuts, short-term volatility may be difficult to avoid.
The essence of this game is the contest between economic laws and political will. Goolsbee's "10-16 month" window coincides with the 2026 U.S. election cycle, and policy choices may be more mixed with strategic considerations. For ordinary investors, rather than guessing the timing of interest rate cuts, it is better to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's September meeting—this battle is viewed by many as a key turning point.