"Understanding the Altseason Duration: A Data-Driven Analysis"

People ask me this all the time:

Worried about your exit timing? Too early? Too late?

Let’s dig into some historical patterns. Might help us navigate what’s coming.

The Parabolic Nature of Altseasons

A parabola in math? Points with equal distance from a focus and directrix. In markets? That crazy acceleration that suddenly flips. Just like altseasons.

Altseasons feed on greed. Plain and simple. They don’t show up early in market cycles. Not even the middle parts when Bitcoin rules everything. They burst onto the scene at the end.

Makes sense, kind of. Regular folks only pay attention when Bitcoin smashes past old records. Media goes wild. They see those “cheap” coins. Dream of getting rich quick.

When Bitcoin hits new highs and its dominance drops? That’s money flowing in. Risk appetite growing.

The ETH/BTC Relationship

It’s not just about Bitcoin losing dominance. Watch ETH/BTC breaking out. These move in opposite directions. Fascinating pattern.

Looking at previous cycles, something jumps out. That parabolic ETH/BTC move that kickstarts the broader altcoin rally? Lasts about 40 days. Not entirely clear why this timeframe repeats.

The “OTHERS” chart shows us the pure altcoin market. You can see both ETH’s move and the wider altcoin surge side by side.

Profit Window Duration

Only 40 days to make money?

Nope.

The data tells a different story. From end of accumulation to peak expansion, we’re looking at roughly 500 days. Quite the window.

This means positioning early – like 4-6 months before halving – can set you up for the whole ride. No need for perfect timing.

We seem to have left accumulation already. If we project another 500 days? Peak might hit around Q1 2025. Take that with a grain of salt though.

Key Insights

Obsessing over exact altseason length? Not helpful. Might trap you waiting for that “perfect” exit. Then you sell too late.

What matters is getting in before the crowd. Then watch for:

• Bitcoin breaking previous ATH
• Bitcoin dominance falling
• OTHERS chart going vertical
• ETH/BTC outperforming

These four signals tell you when to pay attention. When to consider reducing exposure.

And here’s something interesting – when your non-crypto friends suddenly want tips? That’s another signal.

Just remember: retail investors don’t look for technical breakdowns on higher timeframes. That’s exactly why they become exit liquidity for traders who do.