Fed Interest Rate Cut in September Almost Guaranteed, CME Data Shows

I have been closely observing the movements of the Federal Reserve and, frankly, it was about time they lowered those absurd rates! According to recent data from CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 0% chance - that's right, ZERO - of the Fed maintaining the current rates in September. Instead, we have an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut and an 11.7% chance for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.

Before this revelation, there was no talk of cutting rates! Typical of these central bankers, always hiding the game until the last minute.

Looking at October, there is practically no chance of rates remaining unchanged (only 0.4%). Most bets indicate a cumulative cut of 50 basis points (63.4%), while 36.2% foresee a more conservative cut of 25 basis points.

I confess that I am a bit cautious. I've seen this movie before - the Fed cuts interest rates and still the market collapses. As a commentator rightly said, "they can cut or raise the cup, the market is inflated more than a hot air balloon, it just needs a pin to burst it."

I won't fool myself. It's the big whales that control this market, not the predictable decisions of the Fed. I'm keeping my assets well protected because this euphoria may not last long.

Those who follow cryptocurrencies know that these macroeconomic movements bring volatility - it can be an opportunity or a disaster, depending on how you position yourself.