When the 'infinite bullets' mNAV flywheel turns, the narrative of crypto treasuries masks concerns over coin selling

The last cycle saw MicroStrategy kickstart the Bitcoin bull run. Today? It’s all about the ‘altcoin micro strategy’ show. Treasury companies like SBET and BMNR keep buying like there’s no tomorrow. ETH shot up from $3,000 to $7,500 in early 2025. That’s 150% growth. Pretty wild. These companies now shape market sentiment too. Meanwhile, SOL, BNB, and HYPE followed the trend, creating their own treasury-holding narratives and feeding bullish vibes.

But cracks are showing. BNB treasury company Wint faces delisting issues. HYPE treasury company LGHL seems caught in some token sale drama. Makes you wonder if this ‘treasury strategy’ can actually last. What’s hiding beneath this buying frenzy? Let’s dig in.

Company competition: Capital picks winners, crushes others

The ‘treasury company’ battle is brutal. No other way to put it.

Windtree Therapeutics jumped on the BNB reserve train earlier this year. Bad move. Weak fundamentals and terrible stock performance got them a Nasdaq delisting notice. Their stock crashed 80% in one day. Now it sits at $0.08, down 95% from its peak. Kind of depressing for a small pharma company still in clinical trials. Delisting basically means game over.

Then you’ve got BNB Network Company. Night and day difference. BNC secured $700 million in financing mid-2025 with 180 institutions backing them. They hired industry veterans and transformed overnight from nobody to the ‘official’ BNB treasury company.

Capital made its choice. WINT became trash while BNC became royalty. BNC trades at $35.50 now. The market picked its champion.

ETH treasury competition feels just as intense. SBET, with Joseph Lubin at the helm, pioneered the ‘ETH MicroStrategy’ concept. First-mover advantage sent it soaring from $3 to $150. Everyone wanted in.

But BMNR changed everything. Late to the party but bigger in ambition, they declared they’d hold ‘5% of all ETH.’ Wall Street veterans back them. BMNR speaks the language of institutional money. SBET has Web3 pioneers, sure, but they can’t match BMNR’s financial connections.

The numbers tell the story. SBET rose from $25 to $40. Not bad. But BMNR exploded from $70 to over $180. Market clearly picked a favorite.

This competition shows we’re in the ‘winner takes most’ phase. Resources flow to companies with capital, narrative, and expertise. Small players can’t survive even with the trendy ‘treasury’ label. A few winners will absorb everything. The rest will vanish.

Selling concerns: “Strategic reserves” might not be so strategic

Bitcoin has Michael Saylor’s unwavering commitment. Altcoin treasuries? Not so much. Saylor keeps saying MicroStrategy ‘will never sell’ Bitcoin. He keeps buying through financing rounds. Steady buying pressure. Rock-solid confidence. People still debate whether MicroStrategy might eventually sell, though. Altcoin treasury companies haven’t made ‘never sell’ promises. That’s worrying.

Recently, Lion Group Holding Ltd. sold $2 million in HYPE tokens. Odd move. Just two months earlier, they announced their HYPE treasury strategy after raising $800 million. They positioned HYPE as their core asset alongside SOL and SUI. They said they’d increase holdings. Then they sold. Strategic move or panic button? The amount seems small compared to their funding, but it’s not exactly reassuring.

We’ve seen this before. Meitu Inc. put $100 million into BTC and ETH, then cashed out when BTC hit $150,000 in early 2025. Walked away with $280 million. $180 million profit. Not bad. They weren’t a dedicated treasury company, but still – ‘strategic reserves’ quickly became ‘profit-taking’ when prices jumped.

Treasury companies aren’t mass-selling yet. But they could. Lion Group’s move feels like a warning. If the ‘treasury army’ decides to sell together, the bull market could end instantly, crushed by its own driving force.

mNAV flywheel: Magical money machine or ticking time bomb?

Treasury companies run on this mNAV ratio thing – market value divided by Net Asset Value per share. Looks like infinite money during bull markets.

When stock price exceeds NAV (mNAV > 1), they raise funds to buy more coins. Each round increases holdings and book value. Investors get excited. Stock price rises more. It’s a loop: higher mNAV → more financing → more coin buying → higher per-share holdings → more confidence → even higher stock price. MicroStrategy used this playbook for continuous Bitcoin purchases without destroying shareholder value.

But mNAV cuts both ways. A premium might mean trust or just hype. When mNAV drops to 1 or below, everything flips. ‘Enrichment logic’ becomes ‘dilution logic.’ If coin prices fall simultaneously, the flywheel spins backward. Market value and confidence collapse together. Smaller companies with operational issues die first when financing options disappear.

In theory, at mNAV of 1, companies should sell holdings to buy back shares. But discounted companies might also be bargains.

During the 2022 bear market, MicroStrategy’s mNAV fell below 1 temporarily. They refused to sell Bitcoin. They restructured debt instead. That’s conviction. Most altcoin treasury companies lack this foundation. They became ‘buy coin companies’ to survive, not out of belief. When markets turn, they’ll probably sell to cut losses or take profits. That could trigger wider panic.

Navigating DAT treasury risks

Stick with Bitcoin-focused treasuries

The treasury model copies MicroStrategy, and Bitcoin remains the cornerstone. It’s the only globally recognized digital gold with genuine consensus. Traditional and crypto institutions haven’t finished accumulating Bitcoin. For investors, BTC treasury companies usually offer more stability than altcoin copycats.

Watch competition and back leaders

Capital markets are ruthless. In narrative-driven models, markets usually crown one winner. Look at WINT versus BNC. Once capital picks a favorite, alternatives die quickly. Focus on leaders – they attract institutional money, media coverage, and market trust. Second-place players struggle for attention.

If you can’t analyze individual stocks, just buy coins directly. Despite company-level drama, both ETH and BNB hit new all-time highs anyway.

Check company fundamentals

Many treasury companies are just shells with dead core businesses. They survive on crypto speculation alone. This works in bull markets but falls apart quickly when conditions change. Consider:

• Cash flow: Can they make money without asset appreciation?
• Purchase price: Will their entry points hold during corrections?
• Concentration: How much of their assets are in crypto?
• Capital use: Are they just buying tokens or building businesses?
• Debt: Can they survive when bonds mature or share prices drop?

Companies without independent revenue might shine briefly in bull markets but die first when liquidity dries up.

Summary

The treasury strategy has supercharged this bull market. Off-market capital pushed ETH and altcoins to crazy heights. But these ‘infinite bullets’ might mask bubbles and risks. History shows liquidity and narratives can spark rallies but can’t replace actual value. Market looks good now, but stay cautious. Keeping your head while everyone else loses theirs might save you when corrections inevitably come.