Fear and Greed Index: Dropped to 10 (Extreme Fear), 2018 Bear Market Level

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have collapsed.
The likelihood of a rate cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to below 50%. U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high and employment data is too strong, leading Fed officials to continue a hawkish stance. In a high-interest-rate environment, all high-risk assets (tech stocks + cryptocurrencies) are being sold off, with BTC/ETH essentially being a "high Beta version of Nasdaq."
Nasdaq up 1% → BTC/ETH average up 3~4%
The Nasdaq 100 index has fallen approximately 6-8% from its November peak.
Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 91,000 → a decline of about 28% (approximately 4 times that of Nasdaq)
2. Massive Outflow of Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETFs
Since November, the US BTC ETF has seen continuous net outflows (with a weekly high of nearly $1 billion), as institutions take profits and seek safety, directly withdrawing market liquidity. The Ether ETF is similarly struggling. The ETF was originally the driving force that propelled BTC to $126,000 this year, but now it has turned into a "cash machine."
3. High Leverage Liquidation Waterfall
After accumulating too much long leverage after the peak in October, breaking through the psychological levels of 100,000, 95,000, and 90,000, the chain liquidation exceeded 1 billion USD, amplifying the decline. Altcoins are even worse, with SOL, XRP, DOGE, and others dropping by 10-20%.
4. Concerns about the AI/tech stock bubble spillover
Tech stocks lead the decline ahead of Nvidia's earnings report (Nasdaq suffers consecutive sharp losses), and the correlation between the crypto market and tech stocks is as high as 0.9, both being sold off. The market is now treating BTC as the "purest risk asset" to sell.
5. Year-end liquidity seasonally tightens + macro uncertainty
The aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown, uncertainty over Trump's trade tariffs, poor economic data from China, and tightening global dollar liquidity have first hit risk assets.