2024 Bitcoin Halving Countdown: Everything You Need to Know

What is Halving?

Bitcoin Halving refers to the mechanism where the mining rewards for miners are automatically reduced by half every four years. This is not a mysterious event—it's a program that has been coded into Bitcoin from the beginning. Every time 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 10 minutes), the system automatically triggers the Halving.

Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, this process has occurred 3 times:

• November 2012: Reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC (then $12.35/BTC)
• July 2016: Reward decreased from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC ($650.63/BTC)
• May 2020: Rewards decreased from 12.5 BTC → 6.25 BTC ($8,740/BTC)
• April 2024: The reward will be halving from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC

Why Halving?

Satoshi Nakamoto's original intention when designing Bitcoin was very clear: to create scarcity. The total supply is fixed at 21 million, and the Halving mechanism slows down the supply of new coins.

Currently, there are approximately 19.46 million BTC in circulation in the market, and there are 31 Halvings remaining to mine all coins — this means the last Bitcoin will be born in the year 2140.

This deflationary design is benchmarked against gold, rather than the US dollar, which can be issued in unlimited quantities.

Impact on Miners

Direct Impact: A reward Halving means that miners' income is directly cut in half. Small mining farms may suffer losses and be forced to shut down. However, historical data shows that large mining pools continue to operate, betting on a future market rebound.

Mining Difficulty: Interestingly, the mining difficulty has hardly decreased after the first three Halvings. Why? Because miners cannot let the tens of billions of dollars invested in hardware sit idle; they can only grit their teeth and persist.

Cybersecurity Concerns: Theoretically, a significant loss of miners would weaken network security (risk of a 51% attack), but the current scale of BTC is large enough that this risk remains manageable.

Opportunities for Investors

Supply Reduction = Price Increase? Not necessarily, but history is quite informative:

After the Halving, BTC usually goes through three stages:

1. Accumulation Phase (13-22 months): Prices remain stable or slightly increase, market sentiment is lukewarm.
2. Bull Market Period (10-15 months): Continuous rise, with possible pullbacks in between but quick recovery.
3. Bear Market Period (1-2 years): Significant decline correction

Historical data speaks:

• 150 days after the 2012 Halving: $12.35 → $127 (increase of 928%)
• 150 days after the 2016 Halving: $650 → $759 (increase of 16%)
• 150 days after the 2020 Halving: $8,740 → $10,943 (increase 25%)

Noticed? Each increase is getting smaller. Some analysts speculate that this increase will not exceed 500%.

How much will it rise in 2024?

Major institutions and analysts are all calling for price targets:

• Pantera Capital: $150,000 (over a four-year period)
• Minimum price indicator: $100,000 (by 2026)
• Standard Chartered: $120,000 (by the end of the year)
• ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood: $1.5 million (by 2030)
• Bitcoin investor Jesse Meyers: $100,000+ (around the next Halving)

But don't be dazzled by the hype: The stock-to-flow (S2F) model predicts a peak of $460,000, but these are all based on inferences from past cycles. The macro environment (Federal Reserve rate hikes/cuts), institutional fund flows (approval of spot ETFs), and technological developments (Bitcoin inscriptions, Ordinals) will all affect the actual trajectory.

Chain Reaction to Other Currencies

Bitcoin is the stabilizing force of the crypto market. During the Halving, BTC experiences significant volatility, and mainstream coins like ETH often follow the downtrend rather than the uptrend.

Interesting finding: According to cryptocurrency strategist Michael van de Poppe's analysis, the 8-10 months before Halving is the best window for bottom-fishing altcoins, as market sentiment is most pessimistic. Specifically, 252 days before Halving (about 8 months) is when ETH/USD tends to hit a cyclical low.

How to Participate in the Halving Market on Gate?

Aggressive: Use leverage to go long/short on BTC futures to make quick money from volatility (don't forget to set stop-losses)

Conservative Type: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, investing a fixed amount each month to average out costs.

Lazy Type: Use Gate's grid trading bot to automatically buy low and sell high, or directly lock up assets to earn profits.

Smart Type: P2P arbitrage, find price difference opportunities

Long-term: Buy and hold, then put it in Gate Earn to earn interest, letting BTC work for itself.

Key Questions and Answers

Q: Will Halving affect transfer speed and transaction fees? A: No, Halving only changes the miner rewards and does not affect the network parameters.

Q: What if all 21 million coins are mined? A: At that time, miners could only survive on transaction fees. It is expected to happen in 2140.

Q: Do other cryptocurrencies also have Halving? A: Yes. Litecoin ( LTC ), Dash ( DASH ), etc. use a similar mechanism.

Q: Is Halving good or bad? A: It depends on the perspective. For miners, it is pressure in the short term; for long-term holders, it is positive (supply decreases); for traders, it is an opportunity for volatility.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investment is high risk. This article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance.