Powell signaled: the end of QT is near.

During today's speech, the head of the Fed announced news that many were waiting for — the quantitative tightening policy (QT) may come to an end in the coming months. In simple terms, the Fed will stop draining liquidity from the system. This is a clear plus for the crypto market and risk assets.

Main points of the speech:

The labor market is not looking so rosy. Recent figures show a low level of hiring and layoffs. Demand for labor is increasing, but at a slower pace. It is precisely because of the weakening labor market that the Fed lowered the rate in September. The risks here have increased.

On the economy: Growth is somewhere at the level of September, nothing revolutionary. However, the data before the shutdown hinted that growth could be better than expected.

Regarding the decision on the rate on October 29: The shutdown will not have an impact. The Fed has additional sources of data beyond government institutions.

But there are nuances:

• Tariffs put pressure on prices and may lead to sustained inflation
• The monetary policy is effective, there is room for maneuver.
• Sharp rate cuts may leave the fight against inflation unfinished.
• There is no risk-free path in the DCP.

Conclusion: The end of QT is on the horizon — good for the markets. But the Fed will not be reckless with rates. Everything will depend on macro data.