Is gold going to da moon? This wave of predictions has some substance.

A professional analysis agency has released predictions for gold over the next few years, and the data is a bit solid:

Core Prediction:

• Year 2025: Break through 3000 USD/ounce
• 2026: Approaching $3900
• 2030: Target 5000 US dollars

Their logic is actually understandable - after using long-term chart analysis for 50 years, 20 years, and 10 years, they found that gold has completed a 10-year cup and handle reversal pattern, which is a strong bullish signal technically.

Key Drivers:

1. The money supply M2 has been increasing.
2. Global inflation expectations are still rising.
3. The euro's trend is strong (favorable for gold)
4. Expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks boost bond prices

Interestingly, they compared the predictions of institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup, and found that everyone basically points to the range of $2700-2800 in 2025, but this institution is more aggressive, calling for $3100.

Notable Details:

• Gold has reached historical highs among global currencies (this started in early 2024)
• The correlation between gold and inflation expectations is very strong (even tighter than its relationship with the stock market).
• The short positions in the futures market are still quite substantial, and there may be room for further downward pressure.

Overall, the framework of this wave of analysis is quite systematic. It not only looks at charts but also incorporates cross-validation with monetary policy, the bond market, and exchange rates. Whether gold can truly break 3000 in 2025 still depends on two key variables: inflation and the US dollar.