Natural gas futures caught a bid on Friday, with Dec contracts rallying +2.48% as forecasters flagged a cold snap brewing for early December. That's the key catalyst—colder weather = higher heating demand = bullish for nat-gas.

Here's what moved the needle:

**Supply side:** EIA reported nat-gas inventories dropped 14 bcf last week vs. consensus of 12 bcf—a meaningful draw. Storage levels are currently -0.6% year-over-year and +3.8% above seasonal average, so supplies remain adequate but tightening.

**Production side:** US nat-gas output hit 111.1 bcf/day (up 7.9% YoY), near record highs. Active drilling rigs just posted a 2-year high, signaling producers are ramping up. EIA also bumped its 2025 production forecast to 107.67 bcf/day (+1.0%)—potentially bearish long-term.

**Demand:** Lower-48 gas demand was 82.8 bcf/day (-9.2% YoY), but LNG export flows holding steady at 17.7 bcf/day.

**The setup:** Cold weather + inventory tightness is propping prices, but rising production could cap upside. Worth watching how European storage (81% full vs. 90% seasonal avg) impacts LNG demand.