Global Rare Earths Reserves: The Race to Secure Critical Materials

As the world pivots toward clean energy and AI, a quiet battle is brewing over rare earth elements (REE). Here’s what you need to know:

The Big Picture

Global rare earths reserves hit 130 million MT, but they’re heavily concentrated. 2024 production reached 390,000 MT—a 4% YoY jump—but the supply chain remains fragile.

Who’s Sitting on the Treasure?

China dominates hard: 44M MT reserves (34% of global total) + 270,000 MT production (69% of world output). The country has been stockpiling aggressively since 2012 and tightening export controls—a move that’s already rattling global markets.

Dark horse emerging: Brazil holds 21M MT reserves but produced just 20 MT in 2024. That changes fast—Serra Verde’s Pela Ema project expects to hit 5,000 MT annually by 2026, potentially breaking China’s monopoly on heavy rare earths production.

US playing catch-up: Only 1.9M MT reserves vs. 45,000 MT production (second globally). Entirely dependent on California’s Mountain Pass mine. The Biden admin allocated $17.5M to develop domestic processing, but it’s a drop in an ocean compared to China’s scale.

Greenland’s wild card: 1.5M MT reserves, zero current production. Trump’s back in the White House eyeing the Arctic, but locals aren’t budging—permitting battles are dragging on.

Why It Matters

Neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, dysprosium—these four elements power EV magnets. China controls the refining pipeline. India has huge reserves (6.9M MT) but struggles with production scale. Vietnam’s reserves collapsed from 22M to 3.5M MT in one year due to regulatory crackdowns.

The irony? Rare earths aren’t actually rare. The real bottleneck is separation tech—it’s expensive, complex, and environmentally brutal. Myanmar’s mountains are being ravaged by illegal leaching operations as China outsources production.

Bottom Line

The rare earths supply chain is entering a critical phase. With EV demand accelerating and China tightening controls, expect:

• Secondary suppliers (Australia, Brazil, India) to ramp up fast
• Processing capacity to become the real constraint
• Geopolitical leverage to intensify (watch US-China relations closely)
• Environmental costs to force mining standards upward

This isn’t just about metals—it’s about who controls the next decade of tech.