Coffee market just got spicy 🌧️ Robusta up 2.37% to 2-week highs after Vietnam's Dak Lak province got hammered with heavy rains, delaying harvests. Meanwhile arabica popped 0.57% on dollar weakness.

But here's the plot twist: Brazil's coffee supply tightening due to Trump's 40% tariffs is creating a major shortage crunch. ICE arabica inventories just hit a 1.75-year low (396,513 bags), while robusta hit 4-month lows. US coffee imports from Brazil? Down 52% y/y through October.

Bearish factor though - Brazil's projecting 70.7M bags for 2026/27 (+29% y/y), and Vietnam's 2025/26 output is climbing 6% to 1.76M tons. Global coffee exports actually fell 0.3% y/y despite price moves.

So the real story: tariffs creating artificial scarcity vs. record production coming online. Classic supply-demand mismatch. Coffee traders must be losing sleep over this one.