Jakarta Composite Loses Steam: What's Behind Indonesia's Market Slowdown?

Indonesia’s stock market is showing signs of fatigue after a solid two-session run. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) gained roughly 60 points (0.78%) across the streak but hit a ceiling just below 8,420—and Friday’s looking like a snooze fest.

The Setup

Thursday’s close was a mixed bag: JCI inched up 13.34 points (0.13%) to 8,419.92, helped by telecom strength but dragged down by weakness in financials and commodities. Telecoms were the only bright spot with Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison climbing 0.94%, while big banks showed conflicting signals—Bank Mandiri up 1.86% but BCA down 0.59%.

Meanwhile, commodity stocks got hammered. Vale Indonesia tumbled 2.06%, Semen Indonesia dropped 2.21%, and mining plays like Aneka Tambang (-0.67%) couldn’t find footing.

Why The Headwind?

Wall Street’s mess is bleeding into Asia. U.S. markets tanked Thursday: Dow -386 points (-0.84%), S&P 500 -103 points (-1.56%), NASDAQ -486 points (-2.15%)—wiping out early gains despite Nvidia beating earnings.

The culprit? The September jobs report flipped the Fed rate-cut narrative. Unemployment ticked up but job growth crushed expectations. That’s the worst combo for rate bulls. The probability of a December rate cut just collapsed from 98.8% a month ago to 39.8%.

What It Means

Lower rates were the market’s oxygen. Now that oxygen is getting cut off. Expect cautious trading Friday as Asian markets follow Wall Street’s downside bias. Oil’s also struggling—WTI crude for December down 0.44% to $59.18/barrel as peace talks noise overshadows the supply picture.

Bottom line: Jakarta’s momentum stalls here unless there’s a catalyst.