Lithium Market Just Hit Peak Drama in Q3 2025

Lithium carbonate prices went on a wild ride this quarter: tanked to a 4-year low in June, then rallied to 11-month high of $12,067/ton in August, only to slip back to $11,185.89 by quarter-end. Typical.

Here’s the real story—mine output has exploded 192% since 2020 (82k → 240k tons in 2024), but EV demand can’t keep up. Global EV sales hit 17M units in 2024 with 20M projected for 2025, yet lithium supply surged 22% last year. That’s oversupply on steroids, and analysts reckon this imbalance could linger until 2030.

What actually moved the needle? Rumors that Mineral Resources and Liontown might cut supply (both denied it), plus China shutting down CATL’s Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in August—removing ~6% of global lithium supply. Beijing also just tightened export controls on advanced batteries and synthetic graphite (they make 95% of global supply), forcing US to lean harder on Korean and Japanese suppliers like LG Energy.

Meanwhile, the US isn’t sleeping. Washington dropped the first $435M tranche of a $2.23B loan to Lithium Americas for its Thacker Pass project in Nevada—set to be the western hemisphere’s largest lithium source. Phase 1 targets 40k tons annually.

Bottom line: prices are stuck in limbo between oversupply and geopolitical supply shocks. The real reset likely waits until post-2030 when demand finally matches the mines coming online. For now, it’s all sentiment and China/US posturing.