The Fed has really torn its face this time; you may have never seen such a chaotic scene from the Fed.

The meeting hasn't started yet, but the executives have already started clashing in public: New York Fed President Williams just said "rate cuts are quite reasonable," and Collins from Boston immediately countered "there's absolutely no need for that."

The market was stunned, with interest rate cut expectations jumping directly from 30% to 86%, and US stocks started to soar that night. Even more outrageous is that this decision was made with eyes closed.

The government shutdown has delayed both the October employment data and the November inflation report, and Jerome Powell himself admitted it feels "like driving in a fog." However, private data shows conflicting signals: inflation numbers are not coming down, while corporate layoffs have surged by 183%. Is the economy hot or cold? No one can say for sure.

Now the 12 voting members have split into two factions: at least 5 hawks insist that "inflation is not under control, we cannot lower it" while the radical doves directly demand "a 25 basis point cut is not enough, let's go for 50". Powell has not yet made a statement.

The outside world is speculating that he is watching, but the final decisive vote is in his hands. The last meeting cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was barely passed with a 10:2 vote. The disagreement this time is greater, along with political pressure (Trump has publicly urged several times ). Although the market has priced in an 86% probability of a rate cut, many analysts bluntly say: this is still a 50-50 gamble. What do you think? Should we continue to expect a rise, or worry about expectations collapsing directly?