#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 How can you tell what big money is doing by looking at trading volume and candlestick patterns?💡

The logic isn’t complicated: rising prices with increasing volume means a real trend, but if prices rise and volume shrinks, be cautious. Also, observe where the price is positioned—this basically reveals whether the main players are accumulating, shaking out weak hands, pushing the price up, or exiting.

**What happens during the accumulation phase?**
The price lingers in the bottom area, with trading volume staying very low. Occasionally, there’s a sudden large bullish candle, but it quickly drops back down (this is actually testing selling pressure above). Daily candles often have small bodies with long lower shadows. At this stage, big money has a clear intention: quietly accumulate without attracting retail attention, so they deliberately keep the volume suppressed. Remember— the longer the base, the stronger the eventual breakout tends to be.

**What are the features of the shakeout phase?**
The price pulls back slightly, but volume shrinks even more. When it drops to a key level, there’s a sudden volume spike and a rebound. Candles often show a bearish candle engulfing the previous bullish one, or a fake break below support—designed to scare weak holders into selling. The big players do this to flush out short-term profit takers and make it easier to push the price up later. The rule is simple: a pullback with shrinking volume means the main players are still in; a volume-driven rebound signals the shakeout is ending.

**The markup phase is the easiest to recognize**
Price rises while volume increases in sync—both moving in lockstep. You’ll see consecutive large bullish candles breaking through previous resistance levels. At this stage, the main players want speed: quickly moving away from their cost basis, and attracting outside money to chase the rally. But note: only price rises backed by volume are reliable. If prices rise without corresponding volume, it’s likely the main players are controlling the market and could dump at any moment.

**The distribution phase is the most dangerous**
The price has already reached a high level, and trading volume suddenly explodes to extreme levels. But the price can’t rise further, or even starts to pull back slightly. You’ll often see doji or shooting star candles with long upper wicks. What are the main players doing now? Quietly distributing their holdings amid high volume. The core rule: heavy volume with stagnant prices at the top is a warning signal, especially if this happens after good news comes out—when it’s time to get out, don’t hesitate.

One last thing: looking at price and volume isn’t enough. It’s best to also consider on-chain data and large order book positions, and always set a stop-loss. Don’t get fooled by the main players’ fake-outs.