We have to admit, the general pattern of the four-year bull-bear cycle still exists, but the script definitely isn’t a simple copy~

Look—Bitcoin halving has already happened—yet the big bull market everyone was waiting for didn’t arrive immediately. Instead, it dropped about 30% from its high and now it’s just hovering around 90,000, making everyone anxious~

But market sentiment is like a roller coaster, swinging from panic to optimism. Right now, it feels like we’ve just recovered from the panic at the peak, but our legs are still shaky, not sure whether to charge ahead or pull back next~

So, if you ask me how I see the market going forward, I think it can be viewed like this 👀:

☘️ Cycle Stage:
Don’t panic—the early bull phase is usually quite volatile and a bit confusing~
Grayscale has said this is a normal pullback, and the real big action may not come until next year~

So in the long run, now might just be the perfect time to be greedy when others are fearful~ Of course, short-term ups and downs are inevitable, so hold tight and don’t get shaken out easily~

☘️ Market Rotation:
Capital is like water—it flows to where it’s low. Now that BTC has stabilized here, the liquidity should start moving elsewhere~

Look—Ethereum’s #Layer2，锁仓量都干到800亿美金了，# DeFi, #AI+Blockchain projects, these are likely the next stars to step into the spotlight~

So, keep an eye on on-chain data, see where the liquidity is starting to move, and we’ll follow along~

☘️ Macro Environment:
From the Fed’s side, the chance of a rate cut in December is almost 90%, which is huge for risk assets like ours

If inflation expectations rise, then our risk assets, including #crypto, could really get going. But if policies tighten, then we’ll need to be more cautious

☘️ Technicals:
$BTC is currently stuck at the key 93,000 to 95,000 level, like attacking a hilltop. If it can break through with volume, it could attract a huge wave of new entrants and really heat up the market

If it can’t break through, it might need to drop down and find support. So, keep a close eye on trading volume and large transfers for signals

☘️ Sentiment & Risk:
Market sentiment is still leaning toward fear, but often that’s the best time to pick up bargains. Don’t forget, the risks are very real—regulation, technical vulnerabilities, all potential black swans~

So, don’t get carried away. Control your position sizes and diversify across several areas. That way, even if something unexpected happens, we can handle it~

☘️ In summary:
I’m still fairly optimistic about the future market, but in the short term, there will definitely be more choppy consolidation~ So, keep a close watch on $BTC , $ETH ’s trends, check on-chain data, and pay attention to macro policies

If opportunities arise, try to accumulate some promising sectors on dips, like #AI、# DeFi and so on. Most importantly, manage your risk, don’t get too greedy, and steady progress is the way to go