The main reason many people currently believe that $BTC will continue to experience a raging bull market is that the Federal Reserve is about to enter an interest rate cut cycle, and a bear market is impossible during a rate cut cycle.

Whenever someone says "ending quantitative tightening + rate cuts = bullish," I always want them to consider this:

Then why, during the three years from 2023 to 2025, did Bitcoin surge from 16,000 to 110,000 during a cycle of quantitative tightening and rate hikes?

If prices rise during rate hikes and also rise during rate cuts, then what do these two factors really mean for the market?

In fact, macro factors are the backdrop, not the direction.

What the market truly watches has never been just rate hikes or cuts, but rather:
When will liquidity reverse? When will capital expectations change? When will institutions be willing to take over the positions?

So statements like "rate hikes are bearish" or "rate cuts are bullish" simply don’t hold true in a highly capital-driven market like crypto.

Whether the market rises or not is not because of some news event, but because:
Capital needs a reason, and Bitcoin just happens to be the most convenient outlet.

That’s why, even in the same rate hike cycle, we can see historic new highs. So during a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin could also potentially enter a bear market.