To be honest, the current state of the US job market is a bit scary.

By November this year, planned layoffs across the US had already soared to 1.17 million—what does that mean? That’s a 54% jump from last year, hitting a five-year high. This is the first time we've seen such drastic numbers since the pandemic in 2020. In November alone, over 70,000 jobs were cut—while that's half of October's figure, it's still up 24% year-over-year. Verizon laid off 13,000 people in one go, and big names like Google, Microsoft, and Tesla are all on the list; tech, retail, and manufacturing are all "slimming down" across the board.

Why such aggressive layoffs? Three main reasons: AI is starting to take jobs, with basic roles being replaced by technology; tariff policies have thrown supply chains into chaos; and companies are restructuring to optimize costs. The result is hiring intentions have plunged to rock bottom—in November, only 90,000 new jobs were planned, the lowest ever.

The data doesn't lie: the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.2%, up 0.5 points from last year, with 800,000 more unemployed people. This vicious cycle of "accelerating layoffs and hiring freezes" is making the economic fundamentals look really bleak.

What's even more troubling is that inflation is still stuck at 3% and refuses to come down. The market is now betting heavily that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December—CME data shows the probability has soared to 87%, and institutions like Goldman Sachs are also calling for a rate cut. If it happens, it would be the third round of easing this year, after September and October.

So what does this mean for the markets? Weak employment, loose policy, and sticky inflation—a triple whammy that makes the case for safe-haven assets extremely strong. You’ve seen how gold has performed lately; breaking $4,300 this month is almost a sure thing. For the crypto market, this macro environment is also worth close attention. After all, when risk-off sentiment kicks in, the entire pricing logic for risk assets can change.