#数字货币市场洞察 2025.12.08 Market Watch: Stalemate Under FUD, The Key Variable Is This Thursday

BTC, ETH, and SOL repeated the same routine over the weekend—volatile swings and constant wicks. Last week, spot ETF saw a net outflow of $87.7 million, indicating some weakness in capital inflows. FUD is everywhere, yet the market hasn't collapsed, which means the bulls are still struggling to hold the line. On the technical side, a rebound signal appeared on the 4-hour chart last night, so there's a strong chance the market will see a 4-hour-level move. In the short term, the resistance zone remains in the $96,000–$98,000 range.

1. Macro "Shoe" Drops on Thursday

At 3 a.m. this Thursday, the Fed's interest rate decision will be released. The market has already reached a consensus—a 25 basis point rate cut. White House economic advisors are also publicly stating that now is a good time for a "cautious rate cut." What does this mean? At least in the short term, there's no unified expectation of bearish macro news. After Thursday, it's highly likely that bullish factors will dominate.

2. Smart Money Still Quietly Positioning

Saylor is hinting at increasing BTC holdings again; their unrealized gains have risen to 19.3%, or about $9.35 billion. The CEO of a leading GPU chip giant publicly called Bitcoin "portable energy money," which is a significant endorsement. On the traditional finance front, a major French bank has opened crypto trading permissions for clients, and the trend of institutionalization and mainstream adoption is irreversible.

3. On-Chain and Altcoin Chaos

Zombie coins suddenly surged: LUNC, LUNA, and USTT saw explosive moves on CEXs. The market is speculating whether rumors of a major figure's pardon are driving this—a classic case of news-driven speculation.

Meme coin infighting intensifies: Various meme projects on the BSC chain are hot, but negative sentiment is also high. Participants need to stay sharp.

Key time points ahead: Bittensor network will have its first halving around December 14; a new mainnet is about to launch, but liquidity hasn't caught up yet.

This period is hit by both macro uncertainty and weekend liquidity shocks, making losses especially risky. What to do short term? Avoid going all-in and using high leverage. From a mid-term perspective, there are no major macro bearish factors, and no matter how loudly Wall Street shouts, we must stay rational—a reversal is not the same as a rebound. If the market stabilizes and moves up, quality altcoins will follow with strong rebounds. Focus on capital flows after the US stock market opens, and wait for Thursday’s decision to set your direction.