I went through some historical data and found a pretty interesting pattern.

Every time long-term holders start to capitulate, the BTC price is basically hovering at a relatively high level. But there’s a detail worth pondering—during the first four cycles, when old holders capitulated, the number of coins on exchanges actually increased. What does this mean? There really were people cashing out at the top.

To put it plainly, these people who’ve held for a long time probably let go just because the price went up. The moves of market veterans often have some hidden meaning.