#数字货币市场洞察 The Fed meeting this Thursday is about to be revealed. A 25 basis point rate cut is already the market consensus, but the real focus is on what happens after the cut—Powell’s wording will directly dictate the direction of subsequent market trends.

The policy signals are complex. After the cut in October, Powell gave mixed signals: on one hand, warning about an inflation rebound, and on the other, acknowledging that recent PCE data shows inflation is slowing. This ambiguous stance makes December’s actions full of suspense. Since March 2021, inflation has consistently stayed above the 2% target. Although initial jobless claims recently hit a three-year low, easing concerns about a rapid downturn in the labor market, the diverging data has made the Fed’s policy decisions increasingly complicated.

External disruptive factors are piling up. There are inflation concerns from large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, uncertainty over tariff policies, ongoing doubts about central bank independence, and the 43-day government shutdown that disrupted the release schedule of economic data—all of which are increasing uncertainty around the policy path. In this environment, the crypto market will move in lockstep with policy signals—if Powell’s tone is “dovish” (implying continued easing), prices may keep rising; if not, there will be adjustment pressure.

The biggest fear is always a black swan event. If there’s no rate cut at all, none of these strategies matter, and risk control preparations should be made immediately. With two days left, the short-term strategy is to follow market sentiment and aim to capture major volatility on the day of the rate cut. If you bet right, there’s profit; if not, the losses are relatively controllable.