CEX: Traders tend to sell on rallies rather than accumulate positions.

On December 8, CEX stated in its latest report that Bitcoin is entering a phase where weak spot demand and persistent structural fatigue are intertwining. Although the market shows signs of stabilizing, it is far from healthy. Despite a rebound from recent lows, BTC remains confined to a narrow range between $84,000 and $91,000, while the S&P 500 Index is near historic highs. This highlights Bitcoin’s deepening relative weakness and its increasing decoupling from traditional risk assets. On-chain data shows that over 7 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, similar to the situation during the consolidation period at the beginning of 2022, which further indicates that the market is struggling to return to the “real market mean”—a key dividing line that distinguishes mid-cycle fatigue from a full-blown bear market deterioration. However, capital inflows remain mildly positive, providing at least a slight buffer against further downside. Meanwhile, spot demand has deteriorated significantly: US Bitcoin ETFs continue to see capital outflows, active buying interest has declined sharply, and the cumulative trading volume difference on major exchanges has clearly turned negative, indicating that traders are selling into strength rather than accumulating positions.