$ETH Rate cut expectations are at their peak, but have you really understood the risks this time?

The latest prediction market data shows there’s now a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in December. What does this number mean? Basically, the market thinks it’s a done deal. Tonight’s nonfarm payroll data is a major event, but with expectations this high, its actual impact may already be mostly priced in.

So here’s the question—what does this mean for our current positions? Is it good or bad?

In the short term, the good news may have already been fully priced in. The recent market rebound has largely been driven by “rate cut expectations.” Where’s the real pitfall? It’s in the “consensus being too unanimous.” When everyone feels certain, any surprise—no matter how small—can trigger massive volatility. And even if the rate cut happens as expected, the market might still sell off on a “buy the rumor, sell the news” move.

A few rambling thoughts from an old trader:

**Don’t let expectations cloud your judgment**: No matter how high the probability of a rate cut is, it’s not a reason to chase the rally—especially right before or after big data releases, when emotions run wild and it’s easiest to get caught out. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” didn’t become a saying for nothing.

**The key isn’t whether they cut, but what they say after**: What really drives the next move is the Fed’s latest outlook on next year’s rate path—and Powell’s tone in his speech. That’s the critical variable that determines how far this rally can go.

**Control your position size and protect your bottom line**: Before major events, adjust your position to a level where you can still sleep at night. Don’t let excitement replace your risk management logic.

To put it simply, when market consensus is this high, it’s often the most fragile moment. Protecting your capital and unrealized gains is always more important than chasing the top.

If you always seem to get the timing wrong—buying before a drop, selling before a pump—the issue might not be your analysis skills, but a lack of a system to signal when to “enter” and “exit” at key moments. The market is full of opportunities, but what’s scarce is the right timing to seize them.