The crypto market in the past week can be described as a tale of two extremes. On one hand, BlackRock has officially confirmed that Bitcoin will be one of the most important investment themes for 2025, positioning it alongside U.S. Treasuries and the seven tech giants as the three pillars of a modern diversified investment portfolio, injecting considerable confidence into the market. At the same time, BlackRock has been quietly increasing the position, having added 4,534 ETH and 45.379 BTC over the past week. On the other hand, Matador Technologies has also announced plans to raise $58 million to acquire 1,000 BTC, indicating a somewhat consistent movement among institutions.

But the on-chain and exchange data tell a different story. Analysts point out that market sentiment is highly synchronized with on-chain structures, both currently indicating bearish signals, and recent support levels have turned into resistance levels. More painfully, the current funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX show that the market is once again turning fully bearish, indicating that short-selling sentiment is spreading.

The liquidation risk is also accumulating. On Hyperliquid, due to the continuous decline of AAVE, the main long positions have been liquidated one after another, and the founder even had to dip into his own pocket to save the market but has already incurred a floating loss of 2 million dollars. According to the current on-chain liquidation intensity calculations, if Bitcoin falls below 86,000 dollars, the cumulative long position liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach 1.017 billion dollars; if Ethereum falls below 2,900 dollars, the liquidation intensity will also reach 630 million.

The movements of whales and large holders are also worth paying attention to. A certain whale who has been leveraging loans to go long on ETH has recently been selling off, with a total of 30,600 ETH sold in the past week, including a single sale of 10,000 ETH recently. In contrast, another whale has been accumulating UNI, with 1.68 million UNI piled up in the past week, currently showing an unrealized profit of 1.37 million dollars. Meanwhile, the "ultimate bear" has also been cashing out, having closed positions totaling over 50 million dollars this month.

ETF data also shows a divergence in capital trends. The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $84.6 million yesterday, ending a streak of seven consecutive trading days of net outflows, indicating that some funds are positioning themselves at lower levels. However, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day net outflow of $142.2 million yesterday, reflecting a relatively cautious attitude towards Bitcoin.

On-chain deposit data shows that Bitcoin deposits have recovered, with a net inflow of 1596.23 BTC in the past 24 hours across mainstream exchanges. On the platform side, Websea announced the destruction of 57 million platform coins WBS. It is worth mentioning that Ghana has recently officially legalized cryptocurrency trading and plans to explore gold-backed stablecoins, which provides new regional expansion opportunities for the market.

Overall, the long-term bullish signals from institutional investors contrast with the short-term bearish signals from on-chain data, placing the market at a critical juncture of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.