Will gold go up again or stop here? Honestly, there's still a long way to go!

Gold just broke through $4,000, but when exactly? It has already reached $4,059 per ounce. Anyone who decided to invest since the beginning of this year is probably already satisfied. In Thailand, the 96.5% gold bar price has also surpassed 62,000 Baht, which is quite impressive for those still hesitating.

But this might just be a little story, because according to the world’s major financial institutions, gold will continue to rise significantly, especially in the next 12-24 months.

Reasons Why “Gold Will Rise Again” Is Not Just Empty Words

If you think the gold price surge is just due to natural reasons, you’re probably wrong. There are real forces behind it.

Central banks worldwide are aggressively buying gold.

This is unusual because central banks (, especially in emerging markets ), have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons per year for three consecutive years ( 2022-2024 ) and are still very committed in 2025.

What does this indicate? That financial authorities are hurriedly withdrawing from the US dollar. Global gold reserves just hit a multi-decade high of approximately 36,699 tons.

Trade wars = Growing fears

President Trump announced serious plans to impose 100% tariffs on all goods from China. This is no joke. It signals danger to the global economy. When uncertainty rises, investors tend to buy gold as a shield.

Interest rates are decreasing

The US Federal Reserve started cutting rates by 0.25% in September, and markets expect further cuts next month. This is good news for gold because low interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold (, which does not generate interest income but also doesn’t miss out on profit opportunities ).

BRICS group is truly preparing to challenge the dollar

There are reports that BRICS is gathering to develop a gold-backed digital currency. Such moves challenge the global economic structure dominated by the dollar. The more gold you hold, the safer you are in this era of change.

Wall Street’s Outlook: How High Will Gold Go?

Don’t think the numbers I mention are just random figures. They come from financial institutions with teams of analysts.

Goldman Sachs: Raised target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 ( from the previous $4,300 ). The main factors are relentless central bank buying and inflows into gold ETFs.

UBS: Forecasts $3,500 per ounce by December 2025, mainly due to unprecedented central bank gold accumulation. UBS strategist Joni Teves explains that central banks added 1,200 tons just in 2024.

From Thailand’s perspective: If we convert the $4,900 target into Thai gold prices at 96.5%, it would be around 75,000-80,000 Baht per Baht of gold. It’s not impossible. You might see that number in 2026.

When Might Gold Drop: Watch Out for Warning Signs!

Although the overall outlook is bright, there are risks investors should watch for.

If US-China negotiations succeed: Trade tensions will ease, and gold might retreat without much warning.

Profit-taking sell-offs: Rapid price increases often lead to old holders wanting to lock in profits. If a sell-off occurs, short-term corrections could happen.

Dollar recovery: If the US economy unexpectedly strengthens and the Fed delays rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

High interest rates persist: If inflation remains above expectations and the Fed keeps rates high for longer, gold will face downward pressure.

When is the Right Time to Enter?

Strategy 1: Wait for the price to stabilize, then buy (“Buy the Dip”)

Gold is in a strong upward trend, but it’s rising so fast that it looks unusual. Wait for a pullback to key support levels, such as $3,859 or $3,782, then buy. Set stop-loss below $3,750 and target profits at $4,084–$4,113.

Strategy 2: Test the resistance level (“Breakout Retest”)

After just breaking above $4,000, the price may retest this level. If it bounces back up, it’s a good buying opportunity. Set stop-loss at $3,950 and aim for the high of $4,100.

Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci retracement to find entry points (“Fibonacci Retracement”)

Draw Fibonacci lines from the previous low ( around $3,500 ) to the high of $4,059, then look for a retracement at 38.2% or 61.8% levels as entry points. Set stop-loss accordingly.

So, what’s next?

In summary, gold will continue to rise. Goldman Sachs’s target is $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Other banks’ forecasts are aligned in the same direction.

For Thailand, this means you might see gold bars priced at 75,000–80,000 Baht in the future.

But remember: Gold is a highly sensitive asset. The market can be volatile, with rapid ups and downs. If you plan to invest, don’t forget that waiting for the right moment is sometimes better than rushing in. Be patient, wait for a stable price, then enter your position. That’s the real secret to success.