Thai Baht in 2026: Where is it headed? New trends investors need to know

Looking ahead to 2023, the Thai Baht will be a key factor significantly impacting your investment returns. This article analyzes the trend of the Baht in each quarter of the upcoming year, along with a global perspective on the Thai economy, to help you make informed asset allocation decisions.

Overview of the Baht in 2025: A Foundation for 2023

Data from the THB/USD chart shows that from April to July 2025, the Baht experienced a clear upward movement. The THB/USD exchange rate shifted from 0.0290 to 0.0314. This level reflects increased investor confidence, possibly due to the Thai economy recovering and expectations that the US will ease monetary policy.

However, since August, the situation changed. The Baht began to stabilize and weaken back to 0.0300. The market is in a state of confusion, with significant resistance at 0.0310-0.0312 and support at 0.0300, indicating rising global uncertainty.

Baht Trend by Quarter in 2023

Based on expert economic analysis, the Baht in 2023 is expected to fluctuate differently across various periods.

Q1 - Early Year Disappointment

At the start of 2023, the Thai economy remains sluggish, with GDP expected to grow only 1.8%. The export sector continues to face pressure from trade restrictions and global market volatility. Currently, the Baht is in the range of 32-33 per dollar.

Although this is a gray area, the new government is piloting the “Big Win” policy to stimulate economic momentum. Some decisions may boost confidence. Investors should diversify portfolios and consider risk management during this period.

Q2 - Green Light

Mid-2023, the situation begins to brighten. Stimulus policies start to take effect, and domestic consumption begins to recover, causing the Thai stock market to fluctuate within 1,350-1,400 points, with a P/E ratio of 14.5 times.

Foreign investors are returning their interest to retail, tourism, and real estate sectors funded by government money. The Baht starts to strengthen back into the range of 31.5-32.5. This period is suitable for expanding into short-term bonds and high-dividend stocks.

Q3 - The Role of a Weakening Dollar

In the second half of the year, capital flows into emerging Asian markets as the Fed begins to cut interest rates gradually. The Baht is expected to be around 31, with international investors increasing their bets on Asian equities.

Assets like REITs and infrastructure, offering an average dividend yield of 8-9%, are gaining popularity. During this period, it’s advisable to build a stable core portfolio by combining global assets with quality bonds.

Q4 - Uncertainty Returns

Late 2023, the Thai economy recovers but not rapidly, relying on government spending and tourism. The global financial markets anticipate further rate cuts from several countries. The Thai stock market trades within a limited range.

Investors should monitor government budget management and focus on high-dividend stocks and long-term bonds to preserve returns and reduce volatility.

Does a Strong or Weak Baht Affect the Thai Economy?

The Baht is not just a number on a screen; it has real impacts on Thai businesses and families.

When the Baht Appreciates

Exporters, such as electronics companies or processed food producers, face reduced revenues as their dollar income converts to fewer Baht. The tourism sector also suffers because foreign tourists need more Baht to spend in Thailand.

However, importers and consumers benefit because imported goods become cheaper, and investors planning to exchange foreign currency for overseas investments will get more foreign currency.

When the Baht Depreciates

The opposite occurs. Exporters become more optimistic as dollar revenues convert to more Baht, making Thai products more competitive globally. Foreign tourism also rebounds.

But importers face higher costs when purchasing foreign goods. Foreign loans become more expensive, and expenses for studying abroad or traveling abroad increase.

Global Outlook for Thailand in 2023

The US Still Dominates

The US economy is expected to grow by 2.0%, but imports remain vital due to consumer demand, benefiting Thai exporters, especially in electronics, automotive parts, and consumer goods. Risks include continued high interest rates in the US, which could pull capital out of emerging markets.

Slow Recovery in Europe

Eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 1.4-1.5%, boosting demand for industrial goods, food, and rubber from Thailand. A stable euro could attract European tourists to Thailand.

China Continues to Signal Positivity

China’s GDP growth of around 5.4% benefits Asian trade. Thailand gains from demand for intermediate goods and agricultural products, despite risks from China’s real estate slowdown.

Japan: Weak Yen = Tourism

Although Japan’s economy grows only 1.2%, a weaker yen boosts outbound tourism, benefiting Thai service and retail sectors.

India: New Trade Partner

India’s GDP growth exceeding 7% opens new opportunities for Thai exports of auto parts, electronics, and processed foods.

How to Respond When the Baht Depreciates: USD vs EUR

US Dollar (USD)

When the Baht weakens, the dollar strengthens, requiring more Baht to buy one dollar. This often occurs when investors move funds into the US due to high interest rates or economic strength.

US imports become more expensive, but Thai exporters benefit as their goods become cheaper, and American tourists travel to Thailand at better rates.

Eurozone (EUR)

When the Baht depreciates, the euro also appreciates. Thai importers and tourists in Europe face higher costs. Imported goods from Europe, such as machinery and vehicles, become more expensive.

Conversely, Thai exports to Europe, like electronics and seafood, benefit from favorable prices.

Investment Strategies for 2023

Consider the Baht as a Key Decision Factor

The direction of the Baht directly affects stock prices and returns. You should analyze which stocks benefit or suffer from currency fluctuations.

Export vs Import Stocks

Favoring a Strong Baht: Importers, energy, power plants, transportation, and retail—costs decrease.

Favoring a Weak Baht: Electronics components, food, automotive—revenue conversion increases.

Gold as a Hedge

Holding 10% of your portfolio in gold can protect against volatility. Although a strong Baht may slow gold price increases, it still acts as a safety buffer.

Hold USD for Diversification

Cash USD remains suitable for short-term risk hedging against market volatility. You can invest through foreign money market funds or digital assets.

Summary: 2023 for Investors

2023 will be a year where the Baht plays a crucial role. From global uncertainties to monetary policy shifts, investors should employ various risk management tools, monitor economic developments in Thailand and worldwide, and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

When the Baht appreciates, choose import stocks; when it depreciates, opt for export stocks. Understanding how currency movements influence the market will help you progress.