Year-end Christmas season is not just a traditional celebration in the West; it’s also the best time to understand the pulse of the American economy. This year, the Trump administration announced a "paid long holiday" for U.S. government agencies from December 24 to 26, prompting adjustments in the stock market trading schedule—closing early at 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 25th and remaining closed all day on the 26th. At first glance, these seem like two separate events, but in reality, they are deeply intertwined with government operations, financial markets, and economic activity. The logic behind this linkage has a direct impact on short-term market trends.

From a policy perspective, this executive order is not merely holiday welfare. On one hand, Christmas holds special significance in the U.S., with family gatherings and entertainment being the core of the holiday. The three-day break for government agencies allows over two million public servants to fully enjoy the festivities, which indeed boosts social satisfaction. But from another angle, it also acts as a green light for holiday economy—paid leave means that this group’s consumption capacity is unleashed. From dining and retail to tourism and entertainment, the entire consumption chain will be activated.

The data is quite straightforward: the U.S. government employs over 2 million people, and their Christmas season spending contributes over $10 billion annually. This has a tangible effect on short-term consumer markets. When financial markets also close simultaneously, liquidity tends to decrease, and volatility often shows noticeable changes, creating ripple effects in both crypto markets and traditional financial markets. In other words, holiday arrangements not only influence economic data but also shape the market’s short-term rhythm.