2025-12-25 16:22:12

The market sentiment has indeed been quite suppressed these past couple of days. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $87,500, with a volatility of only about ±2%. Both bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war between 87,000 and 88,000, with no apparent intention to break through.

The Fear and Greed Index is now at 24, which is already in the extreme fear zone. Retail investors are mostly on the sidelines, while institutional rebalancing actions are quite evident—spot ETF net outflows are around $120 million per day, and such capital withdrawal is common before the end of the year.

On-chain data is somewhat interesting. Whales have increased their holdings by 3,200 BTC in the past 24 hours, roughly equivalent to $280 million, indicating that large investors still have confidence at this level. The Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to 1.86 million BTC, a three-year low, which usually means coins are flowing into cold wallets—some people are really stocking up. The perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, indicating short-term bearish dominance, but such extreme sentiment usually doesn’t last long.

Macro pressures are also significant. The US dollar index DXY has risen back above 101, and risk aversion in traditional markets is intensifying. Blockchain-related stocks in the US stock market are generally falling, with some compliant platforms dropping over 4% in a single day. Interestingly, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin over the past 30 days has risen to 0.68, suggesting that more people are treating them as similar safe-haven assets.

Risks to watch out for include: liquidity tends to be weaker at year-end, which could amplify volatility. The SEC’s decision on Ethereum ETF is approaching a critical window. Additionally, MEV attack incidents across multiple chains have been frequent recently, so be cautious when interacting with smart contracts.

In terms of trading strategy, the short-term focus is whether BTC can hold the support at 86,500. Mid-term, the panic zone could be used to gradually allocate some fundamentally solid assets. For long-term holdings, the 2024 narrative framework remains intact, so it’s wise to stay patient.

Tomorrow, keep an eye on a few points: the performance of crypto-related stocks after US stock market opens, whether Asian trading hours will see a volume breakout, and the impact of Federal Reserve officials’ speeches on interest rate expectations.

Honestly, market fear often breeds opportunity. When the fear index hits such extreme levels, reversals are usually not far off. The core of investing is going against human nature—remain rational when others panic, and seize opportunities when liquidity returns. (Data as of 12.25 18:00 UTC+8. Cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; invest cautiously.)

BTC0,65%

ETH1,91%

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PessimisticOracle

· 2025-12-28 16:21

Whales are bottom fishing, retail investors are cutting losses, the gap is huge... We really should learn to think in reverse. Extreme fear is starting to become interesting; in previous years, this was a paradise for bottom-fishing experts. If 86,500 can't be broken, we might really need to explore further down, but I’m less worried about the institutional outflows. Is the correlation between gold and BTC coming back? It shows everyone really considers it as insurance, no wonder so many are stocking up. Recently, MEV has been really intense; contract interactions must be cautious, keep a close eye on the fee wallet. The liquidity is so weak at the end of the year that it’s easier to be pushed down... but cheap assets are also easier to be snatched away. Retail investors are scared now, but institutions are quietly increasing their holdings, the gap is too heartbreaking. The fear index is only 24? Then the rebound shouldn’t be far, this level has never disappointed in history. Waiting for the Fed to talk tough; it feels like the key to this round of market movement is in their hands.

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OneBlockAtATime

· 2025-12-28 11:25

Whales are accumulating, and I am too. Let's see who laughs last. --- If 86500 breaks, we'll really have to reassess. The current tug-of-war is a bit annoying. --- Extreme fear can actually be an opportunity. If you're still hesitant now, you'll really miss out. --- End-of-year liquidity is indeed poor, making trading difficult. It's better to stay observant. --- On-chain data doesn't lie. Major holders are dumping into cold wallets, while retail investors are still hesitating. --- Keep a close eye on Federal Reserve speeches; they might directly trigger a rally. --- The correlation between gold and Bitcoin rising to 0.68 is interesting. They're increasingly resembling safe-haven assets. --- When others panic, I look for fundamentally solid projects to jump in on. --- The exchange's BTC hit a three-year low. This data shows some people truly believe in this rebound. --- Perpetual funding rates turned negative. Bears are in control, but such extreme sentiment can change quickly.

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consensus_whisperer

· 2025-12-27 09:14

Whales are bottom fishing, retail investors are still hesitating, the gap is really incredible... --- Extreme fear is actually a signal; while others are selling off, we are accumulating --- If 86,500 can't hold, see you at 85,000 --- This liquidity contraction at the end of the year is probably going to last until the New Year --- Gold and BTC correlation has risen to 0.68, which shows that everyone is really taking them seriously --- Institutions are withdrawing, but whales are eating up the orders. Honestly, there's always someone taking over in this market --- If the index drops to 24, can we just relax? I really dare to, it all depends on who has a strong mentality --- The SEC window period is approaching; we still need to keep an eye on Ethereum --- Waiting for the US stock market to open, feels like there will be some action --- Panic is the easiest time to fall into traps; don't underestimate MEV --- The 2024 narrative is still alive; long-term holders, don't panic

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EthSandwichHero

· 2025-12-26 01:25

Institutions are dumping, big players are accumulating. No matter how you look at it, these buy and sell actions don't add up. The fear index is at 24, and you're still not buying the dip? Are you just waiting to regret it when the rebound happens? Whales have increased holdings by 280 million. Meanwhile, retail investors are fussing over a few bucks in fees—laughable. If 86,500 can't hold, then a real drop is coming. Keep a close eye on this level tomorrow. A cold wallet hitting a new low is a signal. Someone is already quietly positioning themselves. If perpetual funding rates turn negative, does that mean the bears are in control? Then a rebound should be imminent. Extreme emotions tend to reverse quickly. DXY back to 101, US stocks falling—this pressure isn't small. But the correlation between gold and BTC at 0.68 indicates their properties are changing. Low liquidity at year-end often leads to big swings—either a sharp rise or a sharp fall. Spotting the right direction is a big opportunity. Waiting for the SEC's decision on the Ethereum ETF—this will be the next trigger point. Talking about going against human nature sounds nice, but who isn't just trying to survive in a state of panic?

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probably_nothing_anon

· 2025-12-25 16:52

Whales are accumulating, and the exchange coin has dropped to a three-year low. This signal can't be wrong. --- Extreme fear is often the best buying point; it all depends on who can withstand the psychological pressure. --- Institutions are pulling out while retail investors are bottom-fishing. Interestingly, large investors are actually increasing their positions. The gap is noticeable. --- If 86500 can't hold, we might need to continue downward, but in the long run, this position won't result in too much loss. --- End-of-year liquidity is usually weak, but on-chain data still shows some interesting signs. --- The correlation between gold and Bitcoin has risen to 0.68, indicating that people are really starting to see them as a pair. --- The article is correct; a fear index of 24 is truly a bottom signal. Historically, rebounds from this level tend to be quite strong.

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MysteryBoxOpener

· 2025-12-25 16:51

Whales are bottom fishing, while retail investors are still trembling. The gap is really... The fear index at 24 is indeed a bit extreme, but isn't this an opportunity? If 86,500 can't hold, it might go further down. Let's see how the US stock market opens tomorrow and plan accordingly. Liquidity at the end of the year is so poor that volatility could be amplified. Be cautious. The correlation between gold and BTC is now 0.68. Everyone is treating them as safe havens. Perpetual contract funding rates have turned negative, short-term bears are rampant, but such extreme sentiment won't last long. On-chain data looks okay; whales haven't run, and people are seriously accumulating coins. When others panic, stay rational. Easy to say, hard to do. Exchange BTC reserves are at a three-year low. Coins are flowing into cold wallets. Someone is quietly bottom fishing. ETF withdrawals amount to $120 million. Institutional rebalancing is normal. We keep waiting. MEV attacks are so frequent; be very careful with contract interactions. The narrative framework for 2024 is still in place. No need to panic long-term; be patient and wait for a reversal. Keep an eye on 86,500 in the short term. There’s a chance to accumulate in stages mid-term. Just relax for the long term. Reversals usually aren't too far away? I just want to see when it happens, don’t just talk about it.

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BearMarketSunriser

· 2025-12-25 16:50

Whales are bottom fishing, I want to bottom fish too, but I have no coins left haha --- Extreme fear is actually a signal; it all depends on who can hold out until the reversal moment --- If 86,500 can't hold, there might be more story below --- Institutions are withdrawing, causing retail panic, but on-chain data tells a different story --- This is how the year-end looks; let's wait for the New Year’s rally --- When the US stock market opens, crypto starts to shake too, it's really annoying --- Gold and BTC correlation has risen to 0.68? It shows everyone is looking for safe havens, pretty interesting --- I'm not afraid of the fear index at 24 anymore; how many times has it turned around at this level in history --- MEV attacks have been so frequent lately; small coin interactions really need to be cautious --- Keep stacking coins, everyone; the long-term framework is still there

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DogeBachelor

· 2025-12-25 16:45

Whales are bottom fishing, and I'm still on the sidelines. Why is the gap so big? Extreme fear is actually a carnival for big players. I've seen this trick several times before. If 86,500 can't hold... never mind, I won't think about it now. Let's wait until the US stock market opens. Institutions are pulling out, but whales are still eating. This signal is a bit interesting. Liquidity is already thin at the end of the year, and now there's more SEC drama. It's really exhausting. Going against human nature is easy to say, but who the hell can stay rational in fear? Think about it. Three-year lows. Those holding coins must be pretty hardcore. Perpetual funding rates turning negative makes me uneasy. How long can the bears stay so rampant?

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BlockchainNewbie

· 2025-12-25 16:34

Whales are accumulating, and exchange outflows have hit new lows. This signal is actually quite clear. The fear index is at 24... Honestly, I'm a bit tempted to buy the dip, just to see if we can withstand this liquidity crisis. If 86,500 doesn't hold, we might have to drop further, but the mentality of institutional accounts pouring in at this time is indeed different.

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