Fidelity analysts say that a 52% drop in Bitcoin is a sign of market maturation - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Fidelity analysts named Bitcoin’s 52% drop a sign of the market maturing

In the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s drawdown turned out to be significantly less deep than in previous periods. Cointelegraph writes about this, citing Fidelity Digital Assets.

Analyst Zak Wajnwright noted that in the past, after hitting all-time highs (ATH), the price of the first cryptocurrency crashed by 80–90%. Now, the declines after the peak are not as deep, and this trend is highly likely to persist going forward.

Bitcoin price drawdowns after reaching ATH. Source: BitBo.## Change in market dynamics

According to Wajnwright, when evaluating price dynamics relative to prior peaks, there is a decline in investment returns in digital gold.

“With each new cycle, growth becomes less impulsive. The risk of a deep drop in 2026 has also decreased,” the expert emphasized.

On February 6, Bitcoin reached a potential bottom for the current cycle at around the $60,000 mark. That is 52% below the all-time high near $126,000 recorded on October 6. The asset is currently trading 45% below the peak levels from half a year ago.

During the previous bear market, the decline was deeper. Back then, the quotes fell by 77%—from the 2021 high ($69,000) to values below $16,000 in November 2022.

A bottom already by the end of September?

A less deep drawdown points to the market maturing, lower volatility, and increased confidence from institutional investors, said Nick Racc, director of LVRG Research, in comments to the publication.

“Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset into a more stable store of value. In the long run, this opens the door to its broader adoption,” he added.

Alphractal founder Joao Vedson noted that Bitcoin’s local high was reached 534 days after the halving—much faster than in the previous cycle.

“The ‘fading of patterns’ indicates the formation of a market bottom in the period from day 912 to day 922 after the reduction in block rewards to miners. Based on the expert’s estimates, this stage is expected to occur at the end of September or the beginning of October 2026.

Technical picture

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading below the 50- and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which serve as indicators of the long-term trend.

Coinbase BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView.At the same time, the asset is consolidating around the $69,000 mark—above the 200-week EMA, which has historically acted as a significant dynamic support zone during corrections in bear phases of the market.

Recall that, against the backdrop of Ethereum’s market weakness, Bitcoin outperformed it in terms of price dynamics.