Just been watching the peso action today and it's actually holding up pretty well despite all the noise in the Middle East. USD/MXN dropped to 17.56, down 0.74%, which caught my attention since risk appetite picked up a bit. Solid US data came through - ISM services PMI beat expectations, new orders jumped to 58.6 from 53.1, and ADP employment numbers were decent at 63K. But honestly, the mexican money value is moving more on sentiment than the actual economic reports right now.

What's interesting is that Banxico's private economist poll just came out, and they're projecting the mexican currency could strengthen to 18.10 by year-end (down from 18.50 in the last survey). Inflation expectations got revised up slightly for 2026, but the central bank is signaling room to cut rates, which usually supports the peso. You've got Galia Borja basically saying they can ease policy because spending is weaker and investment is declining. That's typically positive for the mexican money value when the central bank is dovish.

Technically, the pair is sitting above both the 20 and 50-day moving averages at 17.25 and 17.50. RSI has been bullish lately after spending months below neutral, which suggests sellers are losing steam. There's also a broken resistance trendline from April 2025 highs, so buyers are getting more aggressive. For a real bounce, we'd need to clear 17.91 (the 100-day SMA) and then 18.00. Downside support sits around 17.00.

The calendar's getting busy - US employment data drops Thursday and Friday, and Mexico has Gross Fixed Investment on March 5 and CPI on March 9. Given how sensitive the mexican money value is to both domestic inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment, these reports could swing things pretty quick. The consensus seems to be consolidation around the 17.50 area for now, but I'm watching to see if we get a breakdown below that or a push higher. Either way, the fundamentals are suggesting the peso has more upside potential from here, especially if Banxico follows through on rate cuts.