I have closely followed what’s happening with the Saudi PIF this week, and honestly, the emerging picture is quite revealing of the turning point that Vision 2030 is taking. The Public Investment Fund is currently testing a revised investment strategy with investors, and this is clearly a pivotal moment to understand how Riyadh will navigate the coming years up to 2040 and beyond.

What first strikes me is the scale of the adjustment. After years of massive spending that faced rising costs and implementation issues, the sovereign wealth fund, worth around one trillion dollars, is considering cutting its capital expenditures by up to 15%. The context is clear: crude oil prices have softened to around $64 per barrel, compared to an average of $81 in 2024, which has tightened the government’s budget space. And even though the PIF doesn’t rely directly on oil prices, dividends from Aramco that feed the fund could well decrease, limiting the capital available for projects.

Yasir Al Rumayyan, the PIF governor, indicated in October that the fund was in the final stages of approving this new strategy for 2026-2030. But here’s the key detail: what we see this week at the PIF Private Sector Forum in Riyadh is just a test version. The full plan will be released in April, after investor feedback. This shows a rather pragmatic approach—test, adjust, then launch.

The background restructuring has been serious. At the end of 2024, during a board meeting, the PIF approved drastic cuts to project budgets, some by as much as 60%. Work on flagship developments like Neom and the Mukaab has been suspended. Now, each project is evaluated based on detailed financial indicators, and anything that doesn’t meet a certain internal rate of return is put aside.

What interests me particularly is the new hierarchy of priorities. Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup are now at the top. From what I’ve learned, no major contracts will be awarded this year unless they mention these two events. This includes transportation, mobility, energy infrastructure, and entertainment around these sites.

The challenge remains significant. The kingdom aims to attract $100 billion annually by 2030, but net flows only reached $19 billion in the first nine months of 2025. Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih clearly stated that the giga-projects have absorbed a lot of government resources and that local and foreign investors need to step up more.

Fitch Ratings estimates that only $115 billion worth of contracts have been awarded since 2019, with about half of the funding coming from the PIF itself. The fund has become the last-resort financier for certain parts of Vision 2030, which is clearly unsustainable in the long term. We’re talking about a transition to a leaner, more aggressive, but also more profitable model—and it’s this rationalization that should shape the pipeline through 2040.

Liquidity is tighter, and tough choices are piling up. But this restructuring, although challenging in the short term, could ultimately put the PIF on a healthier trajectory for the decades ahead.