Goldman Sachs Warns of Strait of Hormuz Risks: Asia May Face Local "Oil Shortages" and Price Spikes

Mars Finance news. On April 6, Goldman Sachs’ latest report pointed out that, due to the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s key energy transportation routes—was under pressure, with the global oil supply chain facing extreme strain, and the risk of localized “oil shortages” continuing to rise. Goldman Sachs analysis said the shock is particularly evident in Asia; multiple economies are highly dependent on energy imports from the Persian Gulf. In some countries, about 50% of fuel comes from that region, while places such as South Korea and Singapore are even more reliant on the Middle East. Although a global supply disruption has not yet occurred, the buffers maintained through methods such as drawing down inventories, rerouting trade, and export restrictions are weakening. Data show that in late March, Asia’s net oil import volume had already fallen significantly, reflecting that supply pressure is rising rapidly. By product category, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have already experienced severe shortages due to tight inventories, while diesel and jet fuel prices have continued to climb; combined with market stockpiling behavior, volatility has been pushed higher. Signs of fuel rationing or supply interruptions have appeared in some countries. India, Thailand, and others have started taking intervention measures in response. Goldman Sachs emphasized that this has not yet amounted to a structural global supply crisis, but if disruption to the Strait of Hormuz persists, localized energy shortages and soaring oil prices will further intensify, especially in regions with high import dependence.