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Bitcoin Cycle Paradox: It Exists Forever Because of “Disbelief”
When Bitcoin drops from $126,000 to the $90,000 mark, predictions about the “four-year cycle failure” are once again proven wrong. This market rhythm, which has operated with precision since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009, still demonstrates astonishing effectiveness in 2025. Behind this lies a counterintuitive market truth: it is precisely the majority’s skepticism toward the pattern that enables its continuation.
1. Halving Mechanism: The Minting Clock of Digital Gold
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle originates from Satoshi Nakamoto’s scarcit
View OriginalWhen Bitcoin drops from $126,000 to the $90,000 mark, predictions about the “four-year cycle failure” are once again proven wrong. This market rhythm, which has operated with precision since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009, still demonstrates astonishing effectiveness in 2025. Behind this lies a counterintuitive market truth: it is precisely the majority’s skepticism toward the pattern that enables its continuation.
1. Halving Mechanism: The Minting Clock of Digital Gold
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle originates from Satoshi Nakamoto’s scarcit
MC:$3.6KHolders:1
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The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio just hit something wild.
Look at BTC/XAU on the 2-week chart. RSI? Sitting at an ALL-TIME LOW. Yeah, you read that right. Historically rock-bottom territory.
Now throw in the 50-week moving average with Mayer Multiple bands. We're kissing the green zone—the bottom band. That's typically where smart money starts paying attention.
What does this mean? Bitcoin's been beaten down relative to gold harder than ever before on this timeframe. Whether you're a gold bug or a Bitcoin maximalist, these technical levels don't lie.
Historically, when BTC/XAU RSI bottoms out like t
Look at BTC/XAU on the 2-week chart. RSI? Sitting at an ALL-TIME LOW. Yeah, you read that right. Historically rock-bottom territory.
Now throw in the 50-week moving average with Mayer Multiple bands. We're kissing the green zone—the bottom band. That's typically where smart money starts paying attention.
What does this mean? Bitcoin's been beaten down relative to gold harder than ever before on this timeframe. Whether you're a gold bug or a Bitcoin maximalist, these technical levels don't lie.
Historically, when BTC/XAU RSI bottoms out like t
BTC0.69%
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HalfBuddhaMoney
:
Blockchain newbies always win:View More
This coin will skyrocket just like LUNC and ICP. If it doesn't, I'll wash my hair while standing on my head.
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Happiness666666
:
Is it possible to go all in and try to double up to recover my losses?:Pin
#PostToWinNESS
The market has been both exhausting and preparing opportunities at the same time in recent days. The fact that these two happen simultaneously is actually the nature of crypto... But in the last few days, I’ve started to look at the flow in NESS a bit differently. Because there’s a significant disconnect between what the numbers are showing and what people are saying.
Here’s the picture as I see it:
The market is in the fear zone, and while everyone is discussing the depth of the pullback, there’s an interesting “silent accumulation” flow happening in some alts. In these types
View OriginalThe market has been both exhausting and preparing opportunities at the same time in recent days. The fact that these two happen simultaneously is actually the nature of crypto... But in the last few days, I’ve started to look at the flow in NESS a bit differently. Because there’s a significant disconnect between what the numbers are showing and what people are saying.
Here’s the picture as I see it:
The market is in the fear zone, and while everyone is discussing the depth of the pullback, there’s an interesting “silent accumulation” flow happening in some alts. In these types
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Ybaser
:
HODL Tight 💪:View More
Anyone who has truly walked the path of #美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 digital assets understands: from your first 10,000u to 1,000,000u, the best strategy is to quietly make your fortune. The people around you either don’t understand crypto investing or simply look down on this industry. But to be honest, almost no one really wants you to make money effortlessly with just a few clicks.
But once your account really surpasses 1,000,000u? The wind shifts immediately. People will actively approach you. Go even higher, to the 10,000,000u level, and there will be a line of people begging you to lead them.
So,
But once your account really surpasses 1,000,000u? The wind shifts immediately. People will actively approach you. Go even higher, to the 10,000,000u level, and there will be a line of people begging you to lead them.
So,
PIPPIN-38.7%
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FlyingLeek:
Keeping a low profile while making money is indeed a cliché, but you only truly understand it after experiencing the pitfalls yourself.:View More
12/7 BTC Early Morning Operation Analysis
The current price is fluctuating around 89,750, with the 90,000 level failing to break through and short-term pressure leaning bearish. MACD is trending downward in the negative zone, the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and trading volume has increased. Key resistance is focused at 90,500 and 91,000, so operations should mainly focus on shorting rebounds.
Operation Suggestions:
Short: Enter at 90,300-91,300, target below 89,500
Long: Enter at 87,300-88,300, target above 89,300
#十二月降息预测 #加密市场观察
The current price is fluctuating around 89,750, with the 90,000 level failing to break through and short-term pressure leaning bearish. MACD is trending downward in the negative zone, the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and trading volume has increased. Key resistance is focused at 90,500 and 91,000, so operations should mainly focus on shorting rebounds.
Operation Suggestions:
Short: Enter at 90,300-91,300, target below 89,500
Long: Enter at 87,300-88,300, target above 89,300
#十二月降息预测 #加密市场观察
BTC0.69%
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Dikagrdn12
:
Hopefully BTC goes up to 150k lol:This week, we releaed a new risk dashboard for Aave on Plasma.
Check out the full dashboard here👇
Check out the full dashboard here👇
AAVE0.34%
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Major news is here! The US SEC is scheduled to hold a roundtable on December 15, focusing on the intersection of cryptocurrency and privacy technology. The lineup is impressive—industry heavyweights like the founder of Zcash will all be present, setting the bar high.
What does this mean for the market? Simply put, the regulatory roadmap may become clearer. Privacy coins will definitely be in the spotlight, but there’s no need to be overly anxious. In fact, clearer rules are actually a positive—big money is most afraid of policy uncertainty. Once the framework is set, institutions will have the
What does this mean for the market? Simply put, the regulatory roadmap may become clearer. Privacy coins will definitely be in the spotlight, but there’s no need to be overly anxious. In fact, clearer rules are actually a positive—big money is most afraid of policy uncertainty. Once the framework is set, institutions will have the
ZEC0.67%
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MiningDisasterSurvivor:
Here we go again? I’ve been through this before—same thing happened with the SEC in 2018, and it ended in a total mess. Privacy coins? Ha, the day regulatory frameworks become clear is the day they die.:View More
The short position opened at the peak of this LUNC rally now looks solid.
To be honest, I was a bit nervous when placing the order, worried that I might have judged the direction wrong. But the price really did reverse from that point, and now the unrealized profit is sitting there, which feels much more reassuring.
I can treat myself to an extra chicken drumstick for a late-night snack to celebrate. Catching the top like this feels really great.
To be honest, I was a bit nervous when placing the order, worried that I might have judged the direction wrong. But the price really did reverse from that point, and now the unrealized profit is sitting there, which feels much more reassuring.
I can treat myself to an extra chicken drumstick for a late-night snack to celebrate. Catching the top like this feels really great.
LUNC-25.32%
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Ser_This_Is_A_Casino:
The price level is pretty good and quite volatile.:View More
Looking to gain investment opportunities in decentralized AI networks? TAO is building something interesting here—using tokenomics to incentivize open-source AI development and leveraging distributed computing power.
What makes it unique? Instead of everything being controlled by centralized AI labs, the network directly rewards contributors. You can think of it as combining economic incentives with accessible AI infrastructure.
For qualified investors seeking institutional-grade crypto exposure, Grayscale recently launched a private placement for the Bittensor Trust. This is one of those rare
What makes it unique? Instead of everything being controlled by centralized AI labs, the network directly rewards contributors. You can think of it as combining economic incentives with accessible AI infrastructure.
For qualified investors seeking institutional-grade crypto exposure, Grayscale recently launched a private placement for the Bittensor Trust. This is one of those rare
TAO-1.34%
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Rolling mill!! Put the dead shorts inside and crush them!!!
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SpicyChickenWithRiceCrackers:
Why don't you short?:View More
Is the Fed about to restart rate cuts? What do you all think this move will mean for #美联储重启降息步伐 and $BTC ? Let's discuss your opinions.
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GasWrangler:
Bitcoin is about to take off.:View More
#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 $BTC $ETH Can this rally still run? The Fed’s rate cut expectations are still brewing, and the $ETH upgrade is about to launch soon. With these two positives combined, will the bull market pace accelerate directly? Anyway, market sentiment is definitely heating up right now—the key is whether we can maintain this momentum going forward.
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notSatoshi1971:
Rate cuts + ETH upgrade, this combo is indeed strong, but can it really drive the market up? Feels like our market just loves to fly kites (set people up for disappointment).:View More
Bullish on new connections 📊
➡️ You follow me
⬅️ I follow back
Deal? 🤝🚀 #CryptoX
➡️ You follow me
⬅️ I follow back
Deal? 🤝🚀 #CryptoX
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KatyPaty:
HODL Tight 💪:View More
I said this afternoon that altcoins are only good for shorting. I've been holding 107 all along. When will I stop holding? They're only good for shorting.
MOODENG3.7%
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Today, the account received a deposit of 470 bucks, and this feels even better than the previous unrealized gains of several thousand dollars.
How was I before? I used to open large positions, staring at a $1,200 unrealized profit without even blinking, always waiting for a $1,000 breakout before closing—only for the market to turn around, giving back all the profits and even exiting at a loss. There was only one thought in my mind: BTC must eat 3,000-4,000 points, and ETH at least 300 points to count as a win. Greed took over, I stubbornly held onto losing positions, and in the end, got compl
View OriginalHow was I before? I used to open large positions, staring at a $1,200 unrealized profit without even blinking, always waiting for a $1,000 breakout before closing—only for the market to turn around, giving back all the profits and even exiting at a loss. There was only one thought in my mind: BTC must eat 3,000-4,000 points, and ETH at least 300 points to count as a win. Greed took over, I stubbornly held onto losing positions, and in the end, got compl
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BugBountyHunter
:
Haha, bro, this realization came a bit late, but at least you made it back alive. I get why you’d be excited over $35—it feels way better than staring at the charts and cursing when your mindset is collapsing.:View More
Liangqiu: 12.6 Bitcoin/Ethereum Short Positions Achieved Major Success Yesterday, Today Focus on Low Point Support
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a downward trend, influenced by macro factors such as expectations of Fed rate cuts. In the short term, they are at a key price battle stage. Yesterday, we set up two rounds of short positions, shorting from 3170 to 3100, and then in the evening from 3140 to 2980, both reached full profit potential. Below is a detailed market analysis:
Key levels for Bitcoin currently: In the short term, it needs to first stabilize above 89800 to start a rebound. T
View OriginalBoth Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a downward trend, influenced by macro factors such as expectations of Fed rate cuts. In the short term, they are at a key price battle stage. Yesterday, we set up two rounds of short positions, shorting from 3170 to 3100, and then in the evening from 3140 to 2980, both reached full profit potential. Below is a detailed market analysis:
Key levels for Bitcoin currently: In the short term, it needs to first stabilize above 89800 to start a rebound. T
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GateUser-68c6ac06:
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a downward trend, and both are affected by macro factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In the short term, they are at a key price level and in a stage of intense competition. Yesterday, we implemented a short-selling strategy twice: first shorting from 3170 to 3100, and then in the evening shorting from 3140 to 2980, both of which fully maximized the profit potential.:View More
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