#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin short-term holding cost basis considers $92k as the next price target On-chain data shows that the upward trend in BTC price may not be over yet, but the resistance level at $84,000 could delay its recovery. Bitcoin (BTC) buyers are regaining activity, pushing the price to a multi-month high of $82,240. On-chain indicators, including the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, suggest that BTC price could rise further, with the next major target at $92,000. Key summary: Bitcoin holders are returning to profitability, increasing the likelihood of reaching $92,000. Bitcoin bulls must break through the $84,000 resistance level to continue the upward trend. The next target price for Bitcoin is $92,000. BTC/USD has risen 37%, trading above $82,000, after dropping to a multi-month low of $60,000 on February 6. This rally has pushed Bitcoin's price above its short-term holder cost basis, currently at $79,000. The STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Historically, when prices rebound to this level, it often signals a prolonged recovery phase, as profit-taking investors tend to be less willing to sell and more inclined to hold. This shift can also attract new buyers and trigger short squeezes when short positions are closed. When the price recovers to its realized price in April 2025, it increased by 30% within four weeks, approaching the upper limit of this indicator at $112,000. Similar situations occurred in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023, with BTC prices rising to the same on-chain levels, as shown below. If Bitcoin breaks through this line, it is very likely to reach $92,423 in the short term, about 13% above the current price. If the price can find sustained support above this level, it will confirm that the 50% drop from the $126,000 all-time high is just a “mid-cycle correction.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has turned positive, indicating early signs of market behavior shift. “Markets tend to transition from accumulation phases to early bull markets.” Bitcoin needs to break through $84,000 to gain support. Bitcoin’s weekly closing price is above the 20-week exponential moving average and the real market mean of $78,300, which suggests a bullish trend, leading traders to believe Bitcoin can continue rising from current levels. Whether Bitcoin’s rally can continue now depends on whether it can break through the supply zone between $82,000 and $84,000. Bitcoin is retesting the $80k low area, “which corresponds to the November lows, and the daily 200MA/EMA are slightly higher.” Note that the 200-day moving average and the 200-day simple moving average are $82,600 and $83,402, respectively. This is an “important threshold” for Bitcoin bulls; “if the price rises, it may rebound further above $90k; but if it falls, the price could hover around $80,000 for a while.” If the resistance at $84,000 is broken, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $92,000.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Today’s ZEC Market Analysis 1. Basic Fundamentals Overview Zcash (ZEC) is the first blockchain system to use zero-knowledge proof mechanisms, providing complete payment privacy while still maintaining a decentralized network on a public blockchain. Like Bitcoin, ZEC has a total supply of 21 million coins, but unlike Bitcoin, Zcash transactions automatically hide the sender, receiver, and amount on the blockchain, with only those holding viewing keys able to see transaction details. Currently, its market cap is $9.79B (ranked 14), making it a large-cap blue-chip token. 2. Market Summary ZEC’s current price is 592.68 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 40.49%, and an intraday fluctuation range of 415.95 — 595.00. The 7-day increase is 69.07%, 30-day increase is 85.03%, and 90-day increase is 146.48%. The short-term rally is extremely strong — ZEC is the best-performing token among the Top 20 over the past month, with gains far surpassing BTC (+18%) and Monero (+21%). 24-hour trading volume is approximately 15.49 million USDT (spot), and futures trading volume is about 109 million USDT. Funding rate is −0.000023 (negative), meaning short positions pay funding, while long positions can earn funding, giving longs an additional advantage. Futures open interest increased by 19.48% over 24 hours (from 557 million to 665 million USDT), indicating highly intense leverage trading. The Fear & Greed Index is 46, reflecting a market sentiment that is neutral leaning towards fear. 3. Price Rally Catalysts 1. Privacy Narrative Surge — As a leading privacy coin, ZEC recently received public endorsement from Arthur Hayes (founder of BitMEX), significantly boosting social attention. Hayes’ endorsement adds celebrity effect to ZEC. 2. Zebra 4.4.0 Release — The Zcash Foundation released Zebra 4.4.0 on May 2–3, fixing multiple consensus-level security vulnerabilities (including a denial-of-service flaw that could cause nodes to permanently stop discovering new blocks). This security upgrade enhances network stability and lays a foundation for future ecosystem development. 3. Grayscale Zcash Trust — Discussions mention that Grayscale Zcash Trust (ZCSH) is the only pure ZEC fund globally, providing institutional investment channels and a gateway to traditional financial markets for ZEC. 4. Technical Indicators Details Trend Indicators All moving averages across different timeframes are in perfect bullish alignment, with trend directions fully consistent: 15-minute: MA7(567.77) > MA30(536.21) > MA120(465.99), 15-minute ADX=60.17 (PDI=52.79 far exceeds MDI=5.56), indicating a very strong upward trend. The PDI/MDI ratio is about 9.5 times, with upward momentum almost completely overpowering downward. 4-hour: MA7(479.12) > MA30(413.98) > MA120(354.85), 4-hour ADX=56.93 (PDI=61.54 far exceeds MDI=3.63), indicating a very strong upward trend. The PDI/MDI ratio is about 17 times, with upward momentum dominantly leading. Daily: MA7(437.23) > MA30(364.06) > MA120(300.98), daily ADX=37.76 (PDI=46.90 far exceeds MDI=6.92), showing a clear upward trend. Trend Summary: From 15-minute to daily, the trend is extremely strong and fully aligned. The 4-hour ADX=56.93 is the highest among all analyzed tokens, with dominant upward momentum. The long position is clearly favored, and trend-following trading carries relatively manageable risk. MACD 15-minute MACD bottom divergence — price makes a new low but MACD histogram rises (4.46 → 4.73), indicating diminishing short-term correction momentum. This is a contradictory signal in an extremely overbought state — bottom divergence usually suggests a rebound or stabilization, but since the price is already high, the divergence more likely signals a shift from "accelerating" to "steady" upward momentum rather than continued acceleration. Volume-Price Relationship 24-hour volume expansion — trading volume is about 804 times the 7-day average (15.2 million vs. 18.9k USDT), indicating significantly increased market participation. Unlike DOGS, where price rises with shrinking volume, ZEC’s sharp surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible. Volume expansion on a rally indicates large new capital inflows rather than just inertia. 5. Support and Resistance Levels Resistance: 595 (today’s high immediate resistance) → 600 (psychological level) → 650 (distant resistance) Support: 567 (15-minute MA7) → 536 (15-minute MA30) → 479 (4-hour MA7) → 414 (4-hour MA30 + today’s low) → 355 (4-hour MA120) 6. Market Outlook and Trading Recommendations Currently, ZEC is at an extremely overbought level among all analyzed tokens — 4-hour WR=−1.76, daily WR=−1.84, nearly hitting the −0 limit; 4-hour RSI=91.49, close to 100. The price deviates from the Bollinger upper band by 16.3%, the largest deviation. The three-period SAR bearish signal conflicts with the bullish moving average alignment. Short-term judgment: The surge is likely to continue inertia-driven upward toward the 600 psychological level, but extreme overbought conditions make a technical correction almost inevitable. The correction may be triggered after reaching 600 or could occur at current levels at any time. The depth of the correction depends on the trigger — if it’s just technical overbought digestion, a pullback to 536–567 (about 5%–10%) is possible; if triggered by negative catalysts or large profit-taking, a deeper correction to 479 or even 414 (about 19%–30%) could occur. Trading advice: Do not chase high at this moment. Existing holders may consider partial profit-taking (near current levels, about 30%–50%), and set trailing stops (using 15-minute MA7 at 567 or MA30 at 536 as stop-loss references). Those without positions should wait for a correction to 479–536 before considering long entries, as oversold indicators will likely be absorbed by then, offering a better risk-reward ratio.

【$TON Signal】1H momentum weakening, high-level oscillation awaiting trend reversal $TON 1H RSI drops from overbought zone to 68, MACD histogram turns negative and diff crosses below dea, buying momentum clearly shrinking. 4H Bollinger upper band at 2.5384 forms resistance, price fails to break after three attempts. Market depth shows buy orders account for up to 64%, but trading volume gradually declines, indicating mixed signals of capital support and weak upward pressure. 🎯Direction: Wait and see (breakout buy setup) ⚡Entry/Order: 2.4949 (confirm breakout above previous high) 🛑Stop loss: 2.3583 (support at previous 1H low broken) 🚀Target 1: 2.7839 🚀Target 2: 2.6000 (near 4H channel midline) 🛡️Trade management: - Execution strategy: Place buy order at 2.4949, reduce position by 50% upon target 1 hit, move stop loss to breakeven; if price falls below 2.3583, cancel the order. Market depth logic: 4H trend remains bullish but volume-price divergence begins to appear, open interest remains stable indicating no large-scale liquidation. Current risk-reward ratio is moderate; patience is advised to wait for confirmation of breakout or deeper pullback before re-entering for more safety. Check real-time market 👇 $TON --- Follow me: Get more real-time analysis and insights on the crypto market! $BTC $ETH $SOL ‍#Gate广场五月交易分享 #比特币站稳8万关口 #CryptoMarketRecovery