In the 0-100% probability range of Polymarket events:
The 0-10% and 90%-100% probability intervals have the highest number of trading users and transactions. Both have accumulated over 1.8 million trading users and over 100 million transactions, significantly higher than other intervals. Trading volume rankings roughly follow a progression from low to high probability. The 90-100% probability interval has accumulated trading volume exceeding $22 billion, almost equal to the sum of all other intervals; followed by the 41-50% probability interval at over $5.2 billion. Interestingly, while it's generally believed that 0-10% events have the lowest probability of occurring, from redeemed trades, the win rate for betting on 0-10% reached 9.185%, ranking in the middle; the lowest is actually the 41-50% middle probability interval where the win rate is lowest when information is relatively symmetric; although the 91-100% win rate is highest, the odds are actually mediocre, and continuous heavy betting would eventually result in losses. Of course, there are notable limitations in the statistics. Many losing positions directly choose not to redeem, making them difficult to track, so the actual win rate for retail traders may be even lower.
In the 0-100% probability range of Polymarket events:
The 0-10% and 90%-100% probability intervals have the highest number of trading users and transactions. Both have accumulated over 1.8 million trading users and over 100 million transactions, significantly higher than other intervals.
Trading volume rankings roughly follow a progression from low to high probability. The 90-100% probability interval has accumulated trading volume exceeding $22 billion, almost equal to the sum of all other intervals; followed by the 41-50% probability interval at over $5.2 billion.
Interestingly, while it's generally believed that 0-10% events have the lowest probability of occurring, from redeemed trades, the win rate for betting on 0-10% reached 9.185%, ranking in the middle; the lowest is actually the 41-50% middle probability interval where the win rate is lowest when information is relatively symmetric; although the 91-100% win rate is highest, the odds are actually mediocre, and continuous heavy betting would eventually result in losses.
Of course, there are notable limitations in the statistics. Many losing positions directly choose not to redeem, making them difficult to track, so the actual win rate for retail traders may be even lower.