DOGE ( DOGE ) price prediction: Three conditions are needed to hit 1 dollar, the current timing is not mature.

The well-known crypto analyst VisionPulsed poured cold water on the highly anticipated $1 target for DOGE in his latest market analysis. He believes that this requires precise coordination of market forces, and the current conditions are not yet ripe. While he acknowledges the possibility of a speculative rise, he warns that the broader market structure remains incomplete, hindering DOGE's parabolic breakout. His core point is that for DOGE to initiate a sustained upward trend, three major conditions must be met: Ethereum must break through its historical high, the Bitcoin Halving cycle time window (approximately 486 days) must open, and global M2 Liquidity must remain supportive. Currently, the rise in Bitcoin's dominance suppresses the prospects of a widespread altcoin rally, and DOGE's own Candlestick patterns are showing bearish signals. As of the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.22.

Analysts question the possibility of a short-term impact of 1 dollar In the latest market update, the cryptocurrency analyst known as VisionPulsed expressed a cautious attitude towards DOGE('s short-term impact on the long-awaited $1 target. He believes that achieving this goal requires a precise combination of market forces that have yet to materialize. While acknowledging the possibility of speculative price surges, he warned that the broader market structure remains incomplete, leaving the meme coin's parabolic breakout potential on hold.

Three Key Conditions for DOGE to Hit 1 Dollar VisionPulsed presents a data-driven perspective: unless Ethereum ) ETH ( decisively breaks new highs, while the time extension effect of the Bitcoin Halving cycle and the global M2 Liquidity background remain supportive, the next parabolic rise stage for DOGE is still a long way off. He particularly pointed out that the current rebound of Bitcoin dominance ) BTC.D ( has once again suppressed the prospects for a widespread rise of alts ) Altcoin Rally (, which is unfavorable for DOGE.

Ethereum breaking through previous highs is the primary catalyst Ethereum has recently improved the market structure by setting a new cycle high and breaking through the $4000 range. However, it is now stuck below the last two technical barriers left from 2021 - "the high point of May 2021 and the historical all-time high )ATH(." He clearly articulated the key order: "Once ETH breaks through this high point (ATH), ETH officially enters a bull market." Before this confirmation signal appears, he believes it is premature to talk about the upcoming "Doge to the moon" phase.

DOGE's price trend has issued a warning signal

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(Source: TradingView) The price trend of DOGE itself is also not optimistic. VisionPulsed emphasized that after traders "flocked in," a clear Candlestick with a long upper shadow indicating a top reversal was formed, which he referred to as "the K-line pattern you definitely don't want to see." He cited a previous similar case where a shadow led to a local reversal, warning against mistaking the short-term squeeze )Squeeze( for the beginning of a sustainable trend.

Currently in a consolidation phase, no clear upward trend In his interpretation, DOGE is currently still in a wide, fluctuating Accumulation) phase - he depicts it as a bottoming process, which may include false breakouts to the upside or downside Fakeout(. Even in a constructive scenario, he warns that if broader conditions are not met, it may still need to experience a "final fall" sweep down before the real Altseason) arrives.

The 486-day Halving cycle time window is crucial Time analysis is the second pillar of his viewpoint. He emphasized that the 486th day since the last Bitcoin Halving is a recurring turning point in previous cycles. "We are rapidly approaching the stage in the 2021 cycle that is seen as the final bull market sprint... that is, the 486th day after the halving," he stated, recalling that both of the past two cycles had significant corrections around this time window, followed by the final sprint market. Calculating from April 19, 2024, as the halving day, August 18, 2025, will be the analogous time point for this cycle — he views it as an important contextual reference rather than a deterministic fate. "There are no guarantees," he emphasized, reflecting on the limitations of historical patterns.

M2 liquidity support is necessary but not sufficient condition From the popular global M2 money supply indicator, the liquidity backdrop remains supportive, but he believes this is not a decisive factor. He acknowledges that "all traders are watching M2", and the current data "indicates a chance for a rebound during this period". However, he emphasized that this relationship is not eternal: in past cycles, even when cryptocurrencies entered a bear market, M2 continued to rise. His conclusion is pragmatic and non-dogmatic: "We will use it until it fails", but it in itself does not guarantee a sustained bull market.

Conclusion: All three conditions are essential From the macro and liquidity framework mentioned above, he extracted the clear necessary conditions for DOGE to hit the headline target of 1 dollar. To achieve a continuous move towards 1 dollar, three major conditions must be met:

1. Ethereum must break through its historical high of 2021 to confirm the start of a new bull market.
2. The "extension" window of the Bitcoin Halving cycle (around the rhythm of approximately 486 days after halving) needs to be opened to provide a time basis for the final sprint in historical patterns.
3. Global M2 expansion needs to maintain sufficient support strength to sustain the market's risk appetite.

Short-term volatility of DOGE is expected, structural changes will take time Regarding the DOGE market itself, he expects significant volatility, but no structural changes will occur. "Can we see the price oscillating back and forth to rise to $0.3? Of course," he said, but views such movements as tradable waves within a larger range consolidation zone, rather than the start of a final sprint. To transform this range oscillation into a trend, what is needed is not a single Candlestick or isolated breakout, but rather the multi-asset condition synergy that he has repeatedly emphasized throughout the update.

( Conclusion: ) The analysis from VisionPulsed provides a reality check for DOGE enthusiasts. Hitting $1 is not impossible, but it is certainly not easy or imminent. It heavily relies on breakthrough performance from Ethereum, the opening of specific time windows in Bitcoin's Halving cycle, and a continuously favorable global Liquidity environment. Before the core catalysts (especially ETH breaking ATH) occur, DOGE is more likely to maintain a wide oscillation pattern, and traders should be cautious of false breakout risks, treating any short-term surges as range trading opportunities rather than trend reversal signals. Market participants need to closely monitor ETH price trends, changes in global Liquidity data, and progress towards the critical time point in August 2025.