Can XRP reach 200 dollars? The new regression model has sparked speculation.

Question

A new mathematical model has boldly predicted that the price of the XRP token could soar to 200 USD in the future. However, this forecast faces stark opposition as XRP is currently struggling to hold the 3 USD mark, creating a significant gap between theoretical potential and market reality.

Linear Regression Model: Data and Scenario

EGRAG CRYPTO's analysis is based on a rather familiar quantitative tool in finance – linear regression model on a logarithmic scale, combined with the 2 standard deviation channel (2SD channel) applied to the monthly price chart of XRP.

This approach allows him to measure and simulate the long-term relationship between the time variable and the price of XRP. Using a logarithmic axis instead of a linear axis helps the chart more accurately reflect the exponential growth rate, a common characteristic of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.

Reliability of the model

A notable highlight is the R² value = 0.84754. In statistics, the higher the R² (coefficient of determination), the better the model explains the variability of the data. This figure implies that over 84% of the price fluctuations of XRP in the past can be explained by the regression model, a fairly strong ratio when compared to the extremely complex volatility of the crypto market.

EGRAG also pointed out that in the past, XRP has touched the upper band of the model multiple times:

Three times "hit the target" – the price reached the upper resistance zone of the logarithmic channel.
One failure in 2021 - the price weakened after hitting the upper band and dropped sharply by 45%.
A breakthrough beyond expectations - the price far exceeds the forecast channel, creating an unexpected growth phase.

This shows that, despite the model having a high correlation, XRP still has the potential for unusual fluctuations beyond statistical ranges, especially during large speculative cycles.

Three price scenarios for XRP

Based on historical precedents and statistical relevance, EGRAG outlines three different scenarios:

Cautious scenario – "lightly touch the upper channel": XRP may only approach the upper band without breaking through, bringing the price to the 27 USD range. This is considered a reasonable growth level under the condition that the market maintains its upward momentum but does not present strong stimulating factors.
Neutral scenario – "repeating the 2021 cycle": If XRP replicates the pattern of 2021, when the price dropped by 45% after hitting the ceiling, then its new trajectory could still bring a price of around 18 USD. This is a scenario that reflects a correction after a hot rally, indicating a balance between demand and profit-taking pressure.
Extreme scenario – "breaking out of the norm": In the event that XRP replicates a similar occurrence to the end of 2018 – meaning it exceeds the upper limit of the model by up to 570%, this coin could reach a level of 200 USD. This is the most controversial scenario, as it requires a fundamental change in liquidity, institutional capital flow, and the practical application level of XRP.

From a mathematical perspective, these scenarios are not absolute "predictions", but rather reasonable fluctuation ranges based on historical price behavior. If the market repeats familiar cycles, the model may prove effective; conversely, just one significant external factor (, such as ETF approval, legal changes, or a global liquidity shock ), can cause prices to far exceed projections.

Market Reality: Symmetrical Triangle and Pressure to Hold Price at 3 USD

Although long-term forecasts present an optimistic scenario with prices possibly reaching tens or even hundreds of USD, the short-term reality of XRP is quite modest. In the current timeframe, this cryptocurrency is in a state of tug-of-war, clearly reflecting the wait-and-see mentality and indecisiveness of investors.

According to a recent analysis by CryptoVizArt, XRP is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This is a type of pattern that typically occurs when the market lacks clear momentum: the buyers and sellers gradually narrow the gap, creating a price structure that is "compressed" into a triangle.

Key resistance: the 3.3 USD range, acting as a short-term market ceiling. This is the level where each time the price approaches, it faces strong selling pressure, reflecting investors' hesitation in betting on a strong growth.
Important support: the 2.8 USD level acts as a "lifeline" for buyers. If this level is broken, a deeper decline scenario could completely occur, especially in the context of the overall market liquidity weakening.

Source: TradingViewIn symmetrical triangle patterns, the breakout point (breakout) often determines the next major trend. Therefore, the fact that XRP is fluctuating around the 3 USD mark indicates that the market is in a waiting state, just needing a strong enough force to determine a new direction.

Signs of weakness from on-chain data

Alongside the price model, the on-chain signals are also not very positive. The latest data from Glassnode recorded the number of active daily addresses of XRP has sharply decreased to only 38,303 (/8).

This figure shows a severe decline compared to the boom period in June, when the number of active addresses exceeded 500,000. This is clear evidence that the level of interaction and usage of the XRP network has significantly decreased, reflecting the withdrawal of a large number of short-term investors or less active network operations than expected.

Source: GlassnodeThe combination of a hesitant technical model and on-chain weakness makes the short-term outlook for XRP quite bleak. While long-term mathematical models suggest the prospect of "thousands of percent growth," maintaining the 3 USD mark has currently proven to be a significant challenge. This highlights the considerable gap between theoretical potential and the actual strength of the market.

Recent Price Volatility

As of the time of writing, XRP is trading around 2.8 USD, recording a slight increase of 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Notably, in the short time frame, the price has only fluctuated within a very narrow range of 2.8 – 3.04 USD, reflecting a lack of strong volatility and indicating that the market is in a state of waiting for a clear breakout.

Weekly frame: Clear resistance pressure

On the weekly chart, XRP has fluctuated within the range of 2.8 – 3.11 USD. On multiple attempts, the price has failed when approaching the important resistance zone of 3.1 – 3.3 USD, indicating that selling pressure still dominates whenever the price gets close to the local peak.

Despite this, XRP still recorded a 3.6% increase over the week, indicating that the buyers have not completely lost their initiative. However, compared to the two weeks prior, this coin has still decreased by 7.3%, reflecting a correction phase after the rapid growth in mid-July.

30-day framework: Positive momentum but lacking breakthroughs

In the last 30 days, XRP has decreased by 7.7%, reflecting a weakening in bullish momentum after reaching a local peak in mid-July. This development indicates that the market is entering a phase of natural correction following a previous hot surge.

1-year frame: Strong growth momentum

In the long-term picture, the performance of XRP stands out with an increase of over 420% within a year. Notably, this coin reached an all-time high of 3.65 USD on July 18, thanks to strong capital inflows and extremely bullish market sentiment at that time.

However, since this peak, the price has gradually entered a consolidation - adjustment phase, reflecting the natural law of the market: after each boom, there is usually a rebalancing cycle before a new trend forms.

An overview of the time frames shows that XRP is in a state of price compression – a phase where any breakout ( in either direction could open up a new trend.

200 USD – A distant prospect or real potential?

For the scenario of 200 USD to become a reality, XRP will need more than just short-term fluctuations driven by market sentiment. This is not just a price target, but a systemic leap that requires comprehensive changes across all three core aspects:

Network application – XRP must scale its practical use in cross-border payments, smart contracts, or become the payment infrastructure for financial institutions. Only when there is real demand from businesses, financial organizations, and even governments, will the intrinsic value be strong enough to support a breakthrough growth.
Capital flow and liquidity – A price of 200 USD means that the market capitalization of XRP will reach tens of trillions of USD. This can only happen if there is a wave of institutional capital flowing in, through products like ETFs, investment funds, or if XRP is widely integrated into mainstream payment systems.
Market structure – To support a large-scale price increase, the market must be able to absorb huge liquidity while minimizing risks from short-term speculative activities. This requires maturity in trading infrastructure, clear legal frameworks, and a healthy derivatives market to balance supply and demand.

Perspective from Raoul Pal: "XRP is transforming"

Despite the challenges, the prospect of 200 USD still creates a strong attraction for investors. Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor, believes that XRP is currently undergoing a "complete transformation."

In the analyses published by him, the XRP price chart shows that this currency is accumulating in long-term consolidation patterns – specifically, a falling wedge and a descending triangle. These are technical patterns that often signal the end of a prolonged downtrend and open up the possibility of a strong breakout.

Pal emphasizes that long-term accumulation phases in the past of XRP have often served as a springboard for parabolic growth phases. A typical example is in 2021, when XRP rose from 0.20 USD to 2 USD in just a few months, creating a growth shock that few could have anticipated at the time.

If history repeats itself, a breakout from the current price consolidation phase could very well put XRP into a new growth trajectory. However, to reach 200 USD, more than speculative excitement is needed – it requires a combination of technical factors, capitalization, and practical application on a global scale.

Lilly

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